NFL Week 16 early predictions, odds: Best bets, picks to target before lines move

Just three weeks remain in the 2025 NFL regular season.

As we enter Week 16, we take a look at some of the closer-lined games where we expect a favorite could grow larger and an underdog narrows the gap.

Last week, favorites went 8-7 against the spread with “Monday Night Football” still left to play.

Many division games are on tap as we sift through the matchups to target before the lines move too far as Sunday approaches.

NFL Week 16 early predictions

Chargers (+2.5, DraftKings) vs. Cowboys

There are two reasons I see this line flipping by Sunday:

1. The Cowboys suffered a ton of injuries during “Sunday Night Football’s” loss to the Vikings, with perhaps none more critical than defensive tackle Quinnen Williams going down.
2. Dallas’ playoff hopes are in the tubes, and there’s been some pretty questionable effort coming from George Pickens, among others.

The Chargers don’t necessarily need this game for their playoff hopes — their 10-4 record is impressive as it is — but their defense is just more physical than the Cowboys’ defense.

I suspect this line flips or gets close to it with some expected not-great injury news for the Cowboys, whose season is all but over.

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Vikings (-2.5, FanDuel) vs. Giants

Some shops are moving this line to three points already, and that makes sense as Minnesota played much better last week against the Cowboys and should have a much easier time against Big Blue.

The Giants’ special teams unit, like the other two units, is a disaster. So while I think Jaxson Dart is the better of the two quarterbacks, that’s about the only area the Giants have an edge.

Justin Jefferson will be a handful for the Giants. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Prior to updates showing Week 15’s games, the Vikings are No. 22 in DVOA and will likely move into the teens after the win, while the Giants are No. 26 and dropping.

If this line moves to 3.5, you’ll have the chance to arbitrage and middle it, with the chance both win if the Vikings win by a field goal.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.