NFL predictions, picks for Week 7 slate

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 7 slate.

Sunday

JETS (+1.5) over Panthers

Gang Green is on the struggle bus, but they are covering spreads. Despite being 0-6, they are 3-3 against the spread, and it can’t possibly get worse for Justin Fields this weekend. The Panthers are riding high after beating the Cowboys. But my model has the Jets as favorites here, 20.58 to 19.58.

BRONCOS (-7) over Giants

I’d like to come here and say the smack-talking swagger-filled Giants will come up and take a game away from the Broncos, who should have lost to the Jets last week. But every week is a new game, and the Giants’ advanced stats do not support much of anything for Big Blue. In their last three weeks, the Broncos are allowing 3.5 yards per play, by far the best in the NFL, while the Giants are averaging 4.6 yards per play, third-worst in the league.

Rams (-3) over JAGUARS

No Puka Nacua, no problem. The Jaguars showed us who they are, and who I thought they were, when they lost to a completely depleted Seahawks secondary. They’ve been extremely fortunate with the turnover battle, forcing 2.3 turnovers per game, second in the league. Turnovers are a flukey thing in this league, and Matthew Stafford is generally pretty good at holding onto the ball. Rams win in London.

Raiders (+12) over CHIEFS

I usually like to bet two-touchdown underdogs against the spread, and it’s even more tasty when it’s a divisional matchup. Divisional matchups with a total between 44.5 and 60 have gone under 59 percent of the time since 2003, per Action Labs. That certainly sets us up for a better shot at a cover. Chiefs win 27-17.

Saints (+5) over BEARS

A few emailers have been making fun of my Spencer Rattler love. You’re crazy to not see what I see. Rattler is the No. 13 QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus. The Bears lead the league in takeaways, a stat that I will fade any chance I get. Survivor pickers beware; Saints upset.

BROWNS (-2.5) over Dolphins

Miami is a mess. Quinshon Judkins has a smash spot against the league’s worst run defense. The Dolphins are allowing 6.8 yards per carry in their last three games, by far the worst mark in the NFL. Cleveland is a run-first team and should melt the Dolphins into sell-off mode as the trade deadline nears.

Patriots (-7) over TITANS

Maybe recently fired Titans coach Brian Callahan was the problem, but I think it’s the personnel. Calvin Ridley isn’t practicing, and Tennessee is the No. 31-rated team per DVOA. The Patriots’ defense is climbing up those rankings, up to No. 11 in defensive DVOA. Drake Maye continues to stake his claim.

Eagles (-1.5) over VIKINGS

We’re a little too far down on the Eagles after a short week loss to the Giants. Philadelphia has 10 days to prepare for the Vikings, who have a revenge game set up for Carson Wentz. Wentz is the No. 28 quarterback per PFF, and that’s only marginally better than J.J. McCarthy, who was 37th. The Eagles should take care of business here as the No. 15-rated team in DVOA against No. 20 Minnesota.

CHARGERS (-1.5) over Colts

Left tackle Joe Alt returning, plus receiver Quentin Johnston back in the fold, I’ll take Los Angeles. My model has this game score at 25.44 to 21.99, so we’re getting a nice edge on the Chargers. Los Angeles is giving up just 5.2 yards per play, the ninth-best figure in the league, while the Colts have allowed 5.6 yards per play in their last three games (12th worst).

Commanders (-2.5) over COWBOYS

Washington is banged up at receiver, but this should be the matchup where they don’t even need it. The Cowboys just watched Rico Dowdle annihilate their listless run defense, and they’ve allowed 5.5 yards per carry in the last three games (fourth worst), while Washington is averaging 5.5 yards per carry (best in the NFL). Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jayden Daniels roll.

Packers (-6.5) over CARDINALS

It sounds like Kyler Murray is very questionable here, and that could actually work against Packers supporters. Green Bay’s defense is too good for me to ignore. They’re allowed 3.6 yards per rush attempt (fourth best) and 4.4 yards per play (second best).

Falcons (-1.5) over 49ERS

Falcons lead the NFL in time of possession and are top 10 in yards per play (5.7, No. 10), yards per carry (4.8, No. 8), and yards per play allowed (4.8, No. 6). San Francisco isn’t near that level in any of these categories, and they’re losing players every week due to injury. Falcons are underrated.

LIONS (-5.5) over Buccaneers

Detroit is getting back some of the cavalry this week as Terrion Arnold and DJ Reader are back at practice. The Buccaneers are too beat up for me to trust. Detroit should be able to slow down that run attack (No. 10 in yards per play allowed), and Baker Mayfield’s magic can only go for so long.

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MONDAY

Texans (+3) over SEAHAWKS

Houston’s defense is loaded, and Seattle’s is injured. Frankly, the Jaguars gave away that game last week; the Seahawks were begging to give that one away. Houston is allowing 4.4 yards per play in their last three games (second best), and their offensive struggles are now over-exaggerated. They are putting up 5.4 yards per play (16th).

Last week: 9-5
This season: 38-47

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.