Next Pope could swing Vatican’s ideology back towards center: experts

The next Pope could come from Africa, Italy, or Sri Lanka — possibly even America — but it’s likely that whoever is elected to follow Pope Francis, who died Monday at age 88, will nudge the Catholic Church back to the ideological center, experts said.

During Francis’s 12-year reign leading the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, the late pope’s support for LGBTQ Catholics and suppression of the traditional Latin Mass were among moves that rankled conservatives in the Church.

Now, said Serenhedd James, editor of Britain’s Catholic Herald magazine, “whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after twelve years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’ as he calls it, I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”

According to the Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of “Our Sunday Visitor” magazine, the next pontiff will bring “a renewed clarity of doctrine” to the church and “focused more internally” on the church’s governance.

Francis changed College of Cardinals

Within 20 days of the pope’s death, a conclave consisting of 120 cardinals out of the 138 “princes of the Church” who are under age 80 and can vote will gather at the Vatican to pick the new pope.

Four daily ballots will be held until a successor is picked. After 30 ballots, the top two candidates will be the only ones allowed; whoever gets a two-thirds majority will become the next pope.

Father Briscoe said Francis “completely reshaped the makeup” of the College of Cardinals, whose newer members were “extremely familiar with each other.”

The late pontiff extended the tenure of Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, as “dean” of the college, and Briscoe said he might have a “behind-the-scenes influence” on the proceedings, given his knowledge of the other cardinals, old and new.

Some of the top candidates, ranked by Italian Vatican watcher Gaetano Masciullo and Vaticanists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna of The College of Cardinals Report website,  range from an advocate of “neo-modernist” theological positions to more conservative leaders.

They have ranked the candidates on The College of Cardinals Report website. Among those deemed most likely to be elected are these six men:

Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67

Filipino Tagle is said to be a protégé of Francis, but may have lost favor after the discovery of “shortcomings” when he headed Vatican charity Caritas International. Masciullo wrote that Tagle, “has expressed very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality, suggesting that universal moral principles may ‘not apply in all situations.’”

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70

At this writing, the Vatican’s Secretary of State Parolin has some conservative positions, but also backed collaboration between the church and Communist China. He’s rated as having a “high chance” of being elected because of his global diplomatic experience.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66

Reportedly Francis’s “favorite” cardinal to succeed him, Aveline is scholarly and affable, observers say. Masciullo called him a “dangerous contender” for the papacy. He said Aveline “is particularly appreciated” in left-wing ecclesiastical and political camps, and supports “strong decentralization” for the Church. 

Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71

A physician and a theologian, Eijk adheres to Catholic doctrine even when it is unpopular. He’s an accomplished administrator and opposes blessings for same-sex couples and “gender therapy.” The prelate also does not back the ordination of women, a stance that would appeal to conservative elements.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77

Ranjith is Archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka. His election would elevate an Asian to the papacy and install a man aligned with both Benedict XVI and Francis’s concern for the poor and the environment. Masciullo said some view Ranjith “as perfectly aligned with Benedict XVI.” Another plus: he hails from Asia, where Catholicism is experiencing tremendous growth.

Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79

Traditional and orthodox, Sarah is a former Vatican official who has been publicly critical of restrictions on the Traditional Latin Mass and the authorization of blessings for same-sex couples. Those statements have made him an outspoken critic of Pope Francis, which endeared him to conservatives. He could be the first African pope since the fifth century. Technically, any baptized male Catholic can be elected to serve as Pope. Still, an unordained person would have to be ordained and elevated to the position of bishop before their election could take effect, according to canon law expert Edward Peters, writing at the EWTN.com website.

But Kean University history professor Christopher Bellitto says the “odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell.”

He said the last time the Vatican “did that was in 1294 and they got Celestine V, who was the pope who resigned and Dante put at the doorway of hell” in the Italian poet’s classic, “Inferno.”