New Impeachment Bids Fire Up Marcos-Duterte Feud in Philippines

Sara Duterte Photographer: Lisa Marie David/Bloomberg Photo by Lisa Marie David /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Impeachment efforts against Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his archrival, Vice President Sara Duterte, advanced Monday in a sign their feud is again set to dominate the country’s politics.

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Two impeachment complaints were filed with the House of Representatives accusing Duterte, among other things, of misusing government funds. A House committee separately declared two recently filed complaints against Marcos as sufficient in form, meaning they meet a key condition needed to proceed. Both leaders deny wrongdoing.

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The two top leaders’ relationship collapsed after they rode a joint ticket to success in 2022’s elections. Relations worsened last year, when Marcos allowed the International Criminal Court to take custody of Sara Duterte’s father, ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, who is being prosecuted for alleged crimes during his war on drugs. He denies the charges.

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Markets have not yet been affected by the rival impeachment efforts, which technically could bar either official from politics if convicted, though investors are watching developments in the young democracy, where Marcos’ father was dictator until the mid-1980s.

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Marcos’ allies dominate the House, which could mean that an impeachment attempt against him may struggle. Sara Duterte, meanwhile, appears to have enough supporters in the Senate which suggests that any bid to oust her may be thwarted.

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“It all depends on the sway of public support for the Dutertes being intertwined with prospects for the 2028 elections,” said Anthony Lawrence Borja, an associate professor at De La Salle University in Manila. “Given that her approval rating is still higher than Marcos Jr. and enjoys a slim majority, more legislators might be on the fence and will be swayed only by promises of protection or patronage, or the movements of public opinion.”

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“Marcos’ low approval gives his camp less room for negotiations if they try to convince fence sitters,” Borja added.

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Sara Duterte is considered a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election when Marcos is expected to step down after a single, six-year term.

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The Philippines has a history of impeaching government officials, most notably former President Joseph Estrada — who stepped down in 2001 — and the late Chief Justice Renato Corona — who was removed by a Senate vote.

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But the prospect of legislators spending time and energy on the accusations doesn’t bode well for an economy which was once one of the region’s fastest: last quarter’s growth already slowed to a 14-year low, excluding the pandemic, as widespread anger over corruption in public works hurt business and consumer confidence.

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The complaints against Sara Duterte were filed by groups of private individuals, including some former lawmakers. Sara Duterte was successfully impeached by the House a year ago, but efforts to bring her to trial in the Senate collapsed after the Supreme Court threw out the case on procedural grounds in July.