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The NBA Draft allows teams to add talented players capable of changing their recent misfortunes. Some prospects fit the bill of a franchise-altering talent capable of making a splash in their new NBA home each year.
With that in mind, there is never an exact science for teams to identify who those prospects will be.
As with any amateur draft in professional sports, there are risks associated with selecting players. Often, the expectations of being a franchise's savior are a heavy burden on a teenager, and they come up short of what was initially expected of them.
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While patience with young prospects is important, that inability to live up to expectations often places them in the "bust" category, an admittedly harsh label placed on players who didn't land in the right situation or just never had what it took to get the job done.
Just as the process of selecting the right prospect is inexact, the manner of identifying red flags in risky prospects can also be tricky. That said, here are some of the riskier prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft class, along with an explanation of why they may come up short of their NBA expectations.
NBA DRAFT: Final two-round Mock Draft | Final Big Board
2025 NBA Draft bust candidates
Ace Bailey, Rutgers
Age: 18
Position: Guard/Forward
Measurements: 6-8, 210 pounds
It's not at all avant-garde to suggest Bailey is a risky prospect in this year's draft class, and there's a reason why the situation surrounding him has reportedly been concerning for interested franchises.
Bailey's game was already polarizing as is, as his ability to make tough shots is a product of his penchant to take tough shots that many do not view as quality looks. On top of that, Bailey measured three inches shorter at the NBA Draft Combine than he was listed in Rutgers media materials.
Factor in controversy with his reputation with an already shaky pre-draft process on the court, and there is a growing number of ways Bailey's time in the league might not go as well as it should.
MORE: How controversial NBA prospect Ace Bailey's stock may be impacted by 'unprofessionalism'
Egor Demin, BYU | Russia
Age: 19
Position: Guard
Measurements: 6-9, 190 pounds
The court of public opinion seems to be split on Demin, as many have been willing to overlook clear flaws in his game to highlight his elite size and passing ability from the lead guard position.
That said, Demin is a guard who shot just 27.3 percent from 3-point range during his lone season at BYU, and his issues on the defensive end may be too detrimental to overcome. While size is prioritized in the modern NBA guard, Demin's flaws as a shooter and defender cancel out his biggest strengths.
He'd have to land in the perfect situation to overcome these issues, and that's far from a given.
Danny Wolf, Michigan | USA/Israel
Age: 20
Position: Forward/Center
Measurements: 7-0, 250 pounds
Wolf is a quirky prospect who front-office executives have become enamored with during the NBA Draft process. The Yale transfer played something of a hybrid point-center position during his one season at Michigan, and his ability to do so efficiently was a big part of the Wolverines' success.
What sets Wolf apart as a prospect may not translate well at the NBA level, as he'll see some tough, physical defenders capable of speeding him up. Wolf had his fair share of turnover woes at Michigan, and that could limit his ceiling as a fun, hybrid big in the league.
Thomas Sorber, Georgetown
Age: 19
Position: Forward/Center
Measurements: 6-10, 255 pounds
Sorber's name has been a popular one throughout the draft process, and for good reason. Before his season ended prematurely due to an injury, he averaged 14.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists for the Hoyas, blending traditional big-man prowess with some modern-day flair.
However, Sorber has health concerns. Sorber's season ended due to a left foot injury that required surgery, something that always raises the concern level with prospects, especially big men.
Hopefully, the health issues are a one-off and in Sorber's past, but it's worth admitting that pre-draft discourse around him is, for some reason, reminiscent of 2017 mid-first-round pick Justin Patton, who never found his footing in the league. Their games aren't quite the same, but that feeling is worth some uneasiness.
Noa Essengue, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | France
Age: 18
Position: Forward
Measurements: 6-10, 194 pounds
Essengue has risen on draft boards as his professional season in Germany has progressed. While he does have a leg up on the draft prospects who have yet to play at the professional level, it's important to be cautious when reading into international pro success.
The fear here is that Essengue's stock skyrockets and a team bases their selection on said success in Germany's BBL, causing Essengue to be selected much higher than he should be. He checks plenty of boxes with his physical tools, but he is also a young, raw prospect. Putting too much on his plate too soon could derail the trajectory of his career development.
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