Mortgage Rates in the US Edge Lower for First Time in Six Weeks

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(Bloomberg) — US mortgage rates fell slightly for the first time since in six weeks, after fresh data revealed that the labor market is cooling and the Iran war may have had a more muted impact on inflation last month.

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The average for a 30-year fixed loan declined to 6.67% from 6.69% a week earlier after five straight weeks of increases, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. Even so, rates remain at the highest in more than a year.

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Inflation seems to have been minimally affected by the war in Iran. Price increases slowed in July from a year ago for a second consecutive month, as energy costs, gasoline and groceries declined from the previous month. A separate gauge of underlying inflation matched a five-year low last seen in February.

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Combined with July’s employment report, which showed weaker hiring than previously reported and unexpected job cuts, the latest snapshot of the US economy was seen as taking some of the pressure off Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates in coming months. The odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the US central bank’s next meeting in September fell to 38% from 48% a day earlier as investors reacted to the monthly consumer price index report, according to CME Group Inc.’s FedWatch tool.

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“There is little downward pressure on mortgage rates between a Middle East conflict that’s keeping inflation high and a Federal Reserve that’s laser-focused on driving that inflation lower,” Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said in a research note. “Current mortgage rate levels may become quite familiar in the months ahead.”

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Those concerns outweighed the news that negotiations between Tehran and Washington over the Strait of Hormuz have remained at an impasse, keeping oil prices elevated. Markets are facing a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels a day this quarter, more than twice what was originally projected, according to a monthly report from the International Energy Agency. Brent crude oil has been trading near $87 a barrel after briefly falling below $80 in early August. 

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High rates and economic uncertainty are curbing demand in the housing market. Sales of US homes fell 4.1% in July from a month earlier, dropping to the lowest level in nearly two years on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to an August report from Redfin.

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Homeowners who locked in record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic are refusing to move, keeping housing supply depressed. The median existing-home sale price rose to $434,100, up 2% from a year earlier and close to a previous record, according to the National Association of Realtors.

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“Many Americans simply can’t afford today’s housing costs, while others are holding off because they’re worried about the economy,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, said in a statement Wednesday.

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