Modi Seeks Stronger Indo-Pacific Ties as US Sends Mixed Signals

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(Bloomberg) — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads to Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand this week to shore up ties with Indo-Pacific nations as questions grow over the US’s commitment to the region and China’s influence expands.

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Modi arrives in Jakarta late Monday, and is due to hold talks with President Prabowo Subianto on Tuesday followed by a state banquet, India’s ambassador told a briefing in Jakarta. Indonesia is a natural partner for New Delhi: the world’s largest archipelago is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific oceans and also has sensitivities over China’s maritime assertiveness. 

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Defense is expected to feature prominently in Modi’s meeting with Prabowo. India’s ambassador said the two countries are in “very advanced” talks on the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile system and that New Delhi hopes to conclude other deals during the visit. Any progress would signal a larger Indian defense role in the region while helping Indonesia diversify its security partnerships.

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Modi’s focus in recent weeks has been on bolstering ties with nations in the western Indian Ocean region, where he visited Seychelles and also met with the leader of Mauritius. He’s now shifting to the eastern part of the Indian Ocean, having hosted Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in New Delhi last week and heading to Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand this week, according to Rudrendra Tandon, an official in India’s Ministry of External Affairs. 

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The key themes of the visits this week are trade, defense and security cooperation, as well as highlighting cultural connections, said Tandon, who is secretary for the eastern region at the ministry. “But of course, at the same time, we deal with emerging issues like energy, like critical minerals,” he said. 

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Washington has sent mixed signals about its commitment to the Indo-Pacific. Weeks after Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the Quad meeting, the Pentagon said it would rename the Indo-Pacific Command as the US Pacific Command, reversing a change made during Trump’s first term. Coming after the US president’s visit to China, the move was widely seen as signaling reduced US focus on the region and giving Beijing greater strategic space.

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Defense and security ties will likely be a feature of Modi’s talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Australia. Defense ministers from both countries met in June and pledged stronger military cooperation, including finalizing a joint maritime security roadmap. 

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“Since the last visit from Prime Minister Modi in 2023, what’s remained constant is the shared concerns Australia and India have about developments in their region, much of it centered on China and its behaviour,” said Kim Heriot-Darragh, an analyst at the Australia-India Institute. “Those anxieties have likely intensified, with shifts in the US political landscape forming part of the backdrop.”