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Twenty-two teams entered the All-Star break either in postseason position or within 5 ½ games of a playoff spot — 22 teams that could talk themselves into buying (or at least not selling) at the trade deadline.
Among the eight clubs that appear out of contention are several — the Rockies and White Sox, for instance — that are so dreadful that they do not have much that interests the contenders.
This dynamic adds up to a lot of teams being desperate for a relatively small number of players, which is expected to complicate a crazed July 31 deadline.
Need a true ace? Barring an unforeseen Paul Skenes or Jacob deGrom blockbuster, too bad. Teams will have to pay more than they want for the likes of Sandy Alcantara (whose stuff is there, but whose ERA is 7.22) or maybe Seth Lugo (very solid, but likely a rental) or maybe raid the teetering Diamondbacks for Merrill Kelly or Zac Gallen.
Other possibilities include Mitch Keller and Zach Eflin in what will be a seller’s market. Virtually every team could use another starter — including the Yankees, who have lost Clarke Schmidt for the season, Ryan Yarbrough probably until August and have at least some concern with Max Fried’s blister — in a field that will not have enough to go around.
Need a top infielder? Get ready to gather and part with your top prospects. The Diamondbacks would receive a haul for Eugenio Suárez, who is clearly the best third baseman at least somewhat available and who would have a strong market. Three of the best teams in the game — the Yankees, Tigers and Cubs — could use an upgrade at the spot and might be bidding against one another for him.
Need an outfielder? There are at least a few intriguing pieces. Jarren Duran could help a team like the Mets — or Padres or Phillies or a few more — if the Red Sox decide they can cash in a 28-year-old who can hit and play center field because of the emergence of Roman Anthony. The sinking Orioles should find a taker for Cedric Mullins, and perhaps this is the year Luis Robert Jr. is sent out of Chicago.
Need a reliever? Get in line, as just about every one of those 22 teams could envision buying another back-end arm. Will the Guardians put Emmanuel Clase up for grabs and see how high the proposed prospect pile rises? The Royals’ Carlos Estévez, Pirates’ David Bednar, Rockies’ Jake Bird and Twins’ Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax also should have their bags packed, just in case, in a reliever market that is always active this time of year.
Because of the extra wild-card spots, the absence of a truly bulletproof team and the dregs of the league being worse than ever — and thus little help to others — the trade deadline will test plenty of front offices regarding how badly they wish to upgrade their World Series chances.
The next few frenetic weeks will be fascinating and revealing. Other storylines around the majors to follow during the second half:
Will there be another home run chase?
Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh has 38 home runs in 96 Mariners games — Barry Bonds tallied 39 in the first half of 2001, when he finished with 73 — which puts Raleigh on pace for 64.
Aaron Judge is up to 35 through 96 Yankees games, on pace for 59.
Could the most talked-about butt in the sport, and arguably the face of the sport, threaten Judge’s AL record of 62 home runs?
Will the Dodgers superteam come together?
The most expensive baseball team ever is 19 games over .500, comfortably in first place in the NL West and probably considered a disappointment. A club perennially hard-hit by pitching injuries has been hard-hit by pitching injuries, but Tyler Glasnow has returned, Shohei Ohtani is building up his right arm, Blake Snell is making rehab starts and Roki Sasaki is throwing bullpen sessions.
They still could add a bullpen arm at the deadline, though Blake Treinen is nearing a return, and Michael Kopech is expected back late this season.
Will the Rockies stupor-team (further) fall apart?
The worst team in baseball might be the worst team ever in baseball. The 22-74 Rockies have set the record for first-half losses, at least since the All-Star break came into existence in 1933. Last year’s White Sox — who set the all-time record for defeats during a 41-121 disaster — were 27-71 at the 2024 hiatus.
Colorado is on pace for 125 losses, which would “break” the White Sox record. Any decent pieces the Rockies have lying around, such as Bird and Ryan McMahon, could be shipped out in the next few weeks. Their remaining opponents have a combined .517 winning percentage that is the second-most daunting in baseball.
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