With the end of the 2026 MLB season comes more uncertainty than the league has had in a number of years.
The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the owners and players is expected to trigger a lockout, meaning the timeline for baseball is very much up in the air ahead of the 2027 season. With owners pushing for a salary cap and salary floor while players insist they won't budge, the next few months could get messy.
The lockout doesn't start the moment the season ends, but the pressure is already on for both sides to start working toward a deal to avoid MLB's most significant work stoppage in decades.
Here are the key dates to know for MLB's impending lockout, including when it will begin.
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When does MLB lockout start?
MLB is expected to lock out the players upon expiration of the CBA on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. While the expiration of the CBA doesn't automatically trigger a lockout, MLB enacting a lockout is simply a formality.
That means, until the night of Dec. 1, the offseason can proceed as normal. Awards will be handed out in November, and free agents are free to sign throughout November. Once the lockout begins, however, all transactions are halted and teams cannot make contact with any player on their 40-man roster.
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MLB lockout key dates timeline
The only date set in stone pertaining to the lockout is Dec. 1, when the CBA expires and MLB will presumably lock out the players. There is no official deadline to hammer out a new CBA, but the 2021-22 lockout tells us what the league's deadlines might be when it comes to starting the season on time.
Here are the dates to keep in mind:
Dec. 1, 2026: Lockout begins
If there is no new CBA in place, which is the expectation, MLB is set to lock out the players upon the previous CBA's expiration at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. At that point, all transactions would end, teams cannot contact players on the 40-man roster and teams stop using the likeness of their players.
The start of the lockout could be preceded by a flurry of free-agent deals and even some trades, as it acts as a deadline to get business done before the indefinite pause. In 2021, Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien were members of a loaded free-agent class to sign deals in the days leading up to the lockout, but Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant and more waited until after the lockout to sign.
February 2027: Negotiations ramp up
MLB and the MLPA negotiated over Zoom during the 2021-22 offseason until in-person meetings began and started to become frequent in mid-February. The first in-person meeting lasted only about an hour, and the next lasted just 15 minutes. One meeting in late February was reported to be "hostile," though negotiations stretched 15 hours ahead of MLB's March 1 deadline to start the season on time.
Will a 2027 lockout follow the same pattern? There is no guarantee. If both sides are intent on playing a full 2027 season, it's possible they hold serious negotiations earlier than February. If 2022 is an indication of what's to come, though, the time in which players typically report to spring training is about the time negotiations start to get serious.
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March 1, 2027 or earlier: Opening Day at risk
In 2022, MLB told the players that Opening Day would be postponed on March 1 if no agreement was reached. Despite frantic negotiations right down to the wire, the league followed through with that promise.
With 2027's early Opening Day set for March 25 after an opening night game on March 24, it's tough to imagine the season starting on time if there is no agreement reached by March 1.
Mid-March 2027: 162-game schedule at risk
Part of what motivated both sides to keep talking and ultimately get a deal done on March 10, 2022 was the ability to salvage a 162-game season. The season didn't start on time, but there was enough room to fit in full slate with some tweaks. If mid-March comes and goes without an agreement this time, though, it's hard to see the calendar allowing 162 games to be played.
End of lockout
There is no telling which date will mark the end of the lockout, but once that day arrives, the formal ratification of the new CBA will allow transactions to begin again. If it comes after mid-February, it will also come with key decisions on when to start spring training and perhaps the regular season itself.
The longest work stoppage in MLB history lasted 232 days from Aug. 12, 1994 to March 31, 1995. The players' strike cancelled the 1994 postseason and World Series, and delayed the start of the 1995 season, costing a total of 938 regular-season games lost across the two seasons.
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Will the MLB lockout cancel games in 2027?
It's too early to tell how long the lockout will last and whether it will cost at least a portion of the 2027 season, but the possibility of an interruption certainly seems to be legitimate.
Both sides have said they view the salary cap issue as a non-negotiable, with the owners pushing for it and the players refusing to consider it. The 2022 lockout included negotiations on a number of topics, but none appeared to have each side as dug in as the salary cap does.
Considering that lockout did interrupt the season, delaying Opening Day and just barely getting resolved in time to play an adjusted 162-game schedule, fears that the 2027 season could experience an even larger disruption are justified.
At the same time, baseball appears to be in a good place, between attendance numbers and highly-watched World Series matchups in 2024 and 2025. Both the owners and players know they could be ruining a great moment for the league by cancelling part or all of the 2027 season, and that could spur some movement toward a deal when deadlines near.
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