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Elsewhere, India’s PMI is due on Thursday, and Singapore is set to report largely unchanged April consumer prices and slightly weaker GDP growth later in the week.
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- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
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Europe, Middle East, Africa
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UK inflation on Wednesday will be a highlight. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg reckon annual consumer-price growth accelerated in April, with the median forecast at 3.3%, the fastest in more than a year, after an increase in regulated energy costs.
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Services inflation, watched closely by the Bank of England for signs of domestic price pressures, is set to remain stubbornly high at close to 5%, keeping monetary policy on track for only a cautious easing.
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Meanwhile, retail sales data are due on Friday, pointing to the health of the consumer after an unexpected first quarter growth spurt partly driven by services.
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In the euro zone, aside from the EU Commission’s rescheduled forecasts on Monday and PMI numbers on Thursday, consumer confidence on Tuesday and a euro-area indicator of negotiated wages on Friday may be the highlights.
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The ECB will release its latest financial stability review on Wednesday and its account of the April 17 rate decision the following day. Among several appearances by officials, chief economist Philip Lane is scheduled to speak a couple of times. Elsewhere, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel will make remarks in Lucerne on Monday.
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Italy may draw attention at the end of the week, when both Moody’s Ratings and Scope Ratings are scheduled for potential updates, and could join other credit assessors in improving their views of the country’s borrowing status.
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South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will make a third attempt to pass a budget in Cape Town on Wednesday. Previous iterations failed because of coalition disagreements, and investors will watch to determine whether tensions within the ruling alliance persist, and if Godongwana holds the line on fiscal consolidation.
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- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA
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Some central bank decisions are on the calendar:
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- Nigerian policymakers will likely keep the key rate at 27.5% for a second consecutive meeting on Tuesday. They’re awaiting clarity on the direction of inflation after an overhaul of the consumer price index muddied their view.
- A day later, Angola is also expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, at 19.5%, to quell inflation that remains in double digits.
- Iceland’s central bank also sets policy on Wednesday. Its survey of market expectations points to a likely quarter-point cut in the key rate to 7.5%.
- Egypt is poised to continue lowering borrowing costs on Thursday after the central bank kicked off its first easing cycle since the height of the pandemic. Policymakers were encouraged by a recent slowdown in inflation and projections that it will keep trending lower. The rate is expected to be cut to 23% from 25%.
- Zambian officials will probably maintain their key rate at 14.5% on Friday as they assess whether their expectations of weakening inflation materialize.
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Latin America
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Chile posts its first-quarter output report on Monday, the third economy among the region’s big six to do so. Growth all but certainly slowed from October-December’s 4% reading.
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Brazil’s March economic activity may show a slight loss in momentum from February’s 4.1% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month readings as the central bank’s aggressive tightening campaign begins to cool Latin America’s biggest economy.
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Beyond the weekly market readout of economists published by Brazil’s central bank on Monday, Banco Central de Chile’s survey of traders and Citi’s survey of economists in Mexico are also on tap.
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Wednesday’s March GDP-proxy data from Argentina may show the first month-on-month decline since last April as consumer confidence wobbled. Even so, South America’s No. 2 economy is widely forecast to be the growth leader among the region’s big economies this year and next.
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The central banks of Uruguay and Paraguay both hold rate meetings. The former may take a pause after three straight quarter-point hikes, while the latter isn’t expected to change rates in 2025.
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