Michigan vs. Duke prediction, odds: Men’s college basketball picks, best bets for Saturday’s showdown

College basketball fans will get an early dose of March in late February. 

The nation’s top team, Michigan, is set to take on No. 3 Duke in Washington, D.C., on Saturday evening in the Edward Jones Capital Showcase.

This massive showdown between two national championship contenders follows No. 4 Arizona’s matchup against No. 2 Houston earlier in the day.  

Coach Dusty May and the Wolverines are favored by 2.5 points over the Blue Devils at BetMGM, with an Over/Under set at 150 total points. 

Michigan has won 11 games in a row, including another Quad 1 win over Big Ten rival Purdue on Tuesday. The top defense in the country has not lost a road game all season. 

Duke buried Syracuse in a 101-64 victory at Cameron Indoor in its most recent outing, as Jon Scheyer’s team scored 61 second-half points to push its winning streak to three games. 

Michigan vs. Duke: best bet, prediction

The marquee matchup to watch will be between future NBA prospects Cameron Boozer and Yaxel Lendeborg. 

Boozer has been a double-double machine for Duke, eclipsing 14 of them in 25 games.

The Wooden Award favorite averages 22.8 points (fourth-most in the country) and 10 rebounds on 58.2 percent shooting from the field.

Lendeborg matches Boozer’s 6-foot-9 frame and utilizes his 7-foot-4 wingspan to his advantage.

Duke star freshman Cameron Boozer. Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The UAB transfer can guard multiple positions and has brought incredible defensive instincts to the Wolverines.

The Michigan frontline is a tough bunch to score on as Lendeborg joins Morez Johnson Jr. and 7-foot-3 starting center, Aday Mara, who averages 2.7 blocked shots per game.

These teams are eerily similar; they rank No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive efficiency and overall rating, according to KenPom. 

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Michigan is 4-0 in neutral site games (3-1 against the spread), while Duke holds a 3-1 record in neutral settings. Both are tied for the most Quad 1 wins in the country with 10.

In a battle of elite vs. elite, I’m siding with Michigan in what should be an intriguing Final Four-level type of atmosphere.

The Wolverines have exceptional depth, shooting and toughness. In addition, Boozer will have to work extremely hard for his scoring opportunities against their top-rated defense. 

I’m confident in taking Michigan on the spread, as no team has more double-digit wins than the Wolverines (21) all season. 

The Play: Michigan -2.5 (-110, BetMGM) 

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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.