Miami or Missouri? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

The hardest part of any March Madness bracket isn't picking the Final Four; it's surviving the first Thursday. While the 5-12 matchup gets all the "Upset Alert" headlines, the 7-10 game is the tournament’s ultimate coin flip. Historically, No. 10 seeds have advanced nearly 40% of the time since the field expanded in 1985.

In the 2026 bracket, the committee has served up a classic head-scratcher in the West: No. 7 Miami versus No. 10 Missouri. It’s a stylistic collision between the Hurricanes' high-octane ACC flair and the Tigers' battle-tested SEC grit.

If you’re staring at your screen and can’t decide which way to lean, here is how to break down the first-round deadlock.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Full TV schedule | Field of 68 projections | Printable bracket

Miami vs. Missouri odds

The Hurricanes open as a slight favorite over the Tigers in the first round, according to DraftKings SportsBook.

• Odds: Miami -2.5
• Date: Friday, Mar. 20
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBD
• Arena: Enterprise Arena, St. Louis, Missouri

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Miami (25-8, 13-5 in ACC)

Miami enters the tournament as one of the most improved teams in the country. After an abysmal 2024–25 season, first-year head coach Jai Lucas engineered a "monster makeover," leading the Hurricanes to a program-record-tying 24 regular-season wins. The Hurricanes play a high-octane style, built on an offense that ranks in the top 35 nationally in efficiency.

The engine of this turnaround is Malik Reneau, a southpaw forward who has become a nightmare for switching defenses. Reneau led the Hurricanes with 19.2 points per game and is elite at abusing mismatches in the paint. When teams double him, his high basketball IQ allows him to find open shooters like Tre Donaldson, the Auburn transfer who solidified a backcourt that struggled with turnovers a year ago. While Miami’s offense is explosive, it can be vulnerable when games slow down.

They struggled in the ACC semifinals against a physical Virginia defense, scoring just 62 points. For Miami to make a run, they need to keep the pace high and ensure freshman standout Shelton Henderson remains an active threat on the wing to keep defenses from collapsing on Reneau. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 32nd
• KenPom ranking: 31st
• Quad 1 record: 6-6
• Quad 2 record: 6-2
• Quad 3 record: 3-0
• Quad 4 record: 10-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 33rd
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 38th

Key players

Malik Reneau, F, Sr. (6-9, 235): 19.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.0 apg

Tre Donaldson, G, Jr. (6-3, 200): 16.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg

Shelton Henderson, W, Fr. (6-6, 220): 13.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.1 apg

Tru Washington, G, So. (6-4, 195): 12.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.7 apg

DECOURCY: Why expanding the NCAA field is pointless

Missouri (22-12, 10-8 in SEC)

Dennis Gates’ tenure at Missouri has been a wild ride, with two NCAA Tournament exits at the hands of a mid-major and one winless season in conference play. The Tigers are back in the big dance, but they want more than just an early exit this time.

Missouri played a weak non-conference schedule but became more battle-tested in SEC play, where home wins over Florida and Tennessee plus road wins at Kentucky and Texas A&M strengthened a resume that put the Tigers on the right side of the bubble. The metrics don’t love Missouri because Gates’ squad had only three comfortable wins in SEC play but got bludgeoned five times this season, losing by 43 vs. Illinois, 26 at Alabama, 20 at Kansas, 17 vs. Texas and 16 at Oklahoma.

Missouri has plenty of size and scores efficiently close to the basket. Leading scorer Mark Mitchell can be a force in the paint, while Trent Pierce and Shawn Phillips Jr. are both at least 6-10 and can rebound the ball well. Pierce and Stone are both strong shooters, and it’s worth noting both missed some time this season but are now healthy. The best shooter in Gates’ rotation is Jacob Crews, who is more one-dimensional but can get hot off the bench.

Defense could plague the Tigers, as opponents shoot close to 37 percent from deep against them, the second-worst mark in the SEC. Teams have a much tougher time scoring closer to the basket against Missouri, so expect any Tigers opponent to launch 3s. Missouri also commits more turnovers than any team in the SEC, and giving teams additional opportunities certainly doesn’t help.

Missouri has proven it can win close games against high-level teams, which is a skill you need in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers have also let a few games get away from them, have a losing record in Quad 2 games and haven’t met expectations on this stage under Gates. To advance this time, Missouri’s perimeter defense must show up. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 52nd
• KenPom ranking: 58th
• Quad 1 record: 5-7
• Quad 2 record: 4-5
• Quad 3 record: 3-0
• Quad 4 record: 8-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 50th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 76th

Key players

Mark Mitchell, F, Sr. (6-9, 235): 18.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.6 apg

Jayden Stone, G, Sr. (6-4, 200): 13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.9 apg

Trent Pierce, F, So. (6-9, 210): 10.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 spg

Anthony Robinson II, G, So. (6-2, 175): 8.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.6 spg

Miami vs. Missouri prediction

Both Miami and Missouri come into the tournament as teams that, when they play at their best, can make a run for a few rounds.

Let's start with Jai Lucas and the Hurricanes, who in year one of the program finished third in the ACC and are back in the NCAA Tournament. After a dismal 2024-25 season, Miami was the sport's biggest turnaround story, jumping from the bottom of the conference to 25 wins. They are a nightmare to scout because they play at a breakneck pace and have a frontline anchor in Malik Reneau, who can pass just as well as he scores. When Tre Donaldson is taking care of the ball and freshman Shelton Henderson is attacking the rim in transition, Miami looks like a team that belongs in the second weekend.

On the other side, Dennis Gates has a Missouri team that is built to win ugly. They aren't going to wow you with 3-point shooting percentages, but they are going to force you into a physical, 94-foot battle. Mark Mitchell has transformed into a legitimate All-SEC star, and his ability to get to the free-throw line is the ultimate equalizer. If Missouri can slow this game down and turn it into a half-court grind, they can negate Miami’s speed and force the Hurricanes to play a style they typically hate. The physicality at the guard position favors the Tigers, especially if Mitchell is able to get to the paint at will.

The pick: Miami 74, Missouri 68. Missouri’s defense is tenacious, but Miami’s offensive efficiency is simply too high. Reneau is the most talented player on the floor, and his ability to facilitate out of the post should help the Hurricanes bypass Mizzou’s pressure. Expect a close game for 30 minutes before Miami’s depth and transition scoring pull them away in the closing moments.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 7 vs. 10 matchups in NCAA Tournament

Overall, No. 7 seeds hold a 96-64 advantage over No. 10 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Based on those figures, the No. 7 seed has a 60.0% win rate in its first-round matchups over the past four decades.

There's plenty of reason to believe an upset is brewing, however. No. 10 seeds have notched wins against No. 7 seeds in every single tournament since 2008, when Stephen Curry and Davidson downed Gonzaga en route to a glimmering Elite Eight run. In 2025, the trend continued with two double-digit seeds pulling off opening-round victories. Arkansas knocked off Kansas in a 79-72 thriller, and New Mexico handled Marquette with a 75-66 win.

Below is a breakdown of the wins 10-seeds have enjoyed over 7-seeds since 2009:

Dan Treacy contributed to this article.