Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia odds, prediction: Gold Cup picks, best bets Saturday

We know exactly what Hervé Renard wants Saudi Arabia to do against Mexico.

Renard has been on the international soccer scene for two decades, and his teams always play the same way: They sit deep, defend and try to counterattack.

That’s exactly what to expect from Saudi Arabia against Mexico in the Gold Cup quarterfinals Saturday night at State Farm Stadium in Phoenix. 

Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia betting prediction 

Mexico topped Group A in the Gold Cup, but they didn’t exactly turn anybody’s heads in the process.

El Tri defeated Suriname, 2-0, but they were pushed to the brink in a 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic before finishing off the group stage with a nil-nil draw against Costa Rica.

Things always get weird in CONCACAF tournaments, but the group stage should have been a lot simpler for Mexico.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, did exactly what you expected in Group D.

Saudi Arabia manager Herve Renard on the sidelines. Matt Aguirre-Imagn Images

The Green Falcons played three low-event matches and went 1-1-1 to finish second in set behind the United States.

No team scored more than two goals in any of Saudi Arabia’s three matches, and they only held two of their three opponents (including Team USA) to under 1.2 expected goals.

Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia pick

In a vacuum, Mexico looks like an easy winner in this match. They’ve got a lot more talent than the Green Falcons and should have a huge home-field advantage in Arizona.

But when you take a step back and consider the form of these two teams and the stylistic matchup, the margins become a lot slimmer.

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Saudi Arabia will sit deep and force Mexico to break them down, which could prove a frustrating endeavor. 

The United States was only able to muster five shots against Renard’s side, and I’d imagine that Mexico will be held to a similar quantity.

Saudi Arabia is worth a bet in this one.

The Play: Saudi Arabia to advance (+350, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.