Mets vs. Phillies prediction: MLB Saturday picks, odds, player props

The Griffin Canning experience in New York has taken an unfortunate turn for the worse. 

The 29-year-old right-hander signed a one-year, $4.25 million deal that included up to $1 million in bonuses over the offseason, and the move looked like an absolute steal through the first few weeks of the season. 

Canning posted a sparkling 2.47 ERA over his first nine starts with the Mets as one of several surprising bright spots on the club’s pitching staff. 

But he’s gone the other way in the month-plus since. 

In his last five starts, Canning has posted an atrocious 6.75 ERA over 19 ⅔ innings pitched, ballooning his 2025 ERA to 3.80. 

After limiting free passes earlier this season, Canning has reverted back to his wild ways, walking 6.75 batters per nine innings over this rough stretch. 

His strikeouts per nine innings have dipped to 7.17, culminating in disaster for the former Angel. 

New York Mets pitcher Griffin Canning (L) reacts after being taken out of the ball game by New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (R) in the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Citi Field on Sunday, June 15, 2025. JASON SZENES/NY POST

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has been quick to give Canning the hook during this stretch – he’s gone six innings just once over his past five starts and twice couldn’t make it out of the third inning. 

Canning will take on the Phillies in Philadelphia on Saturday as he looks to get back on track. 

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The Phillies’ offense got off to a slow start, but has looked like the stacked lineup we know it to be over the past month-and-a-half, posting a .745 on-base-plus-slugging since May 1, which ranked seventh in baseball before Friday’s 10-2 win over the Mets.

With how he’s looked recently, it’s time to fade Canning in a tough matchup.

The play: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 strikeouts (-150, bet365)

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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.