Mets probably will lose $12 million starter a year earlier than contract hoped

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The tricky thing about putting player options into contracts is that, if a team is right about the guy, he rarely will exercise his player option.

That's the situation the New York Mets seem to find themselves in with Clay Holmes.

Holmes wasn't a sure thing when the Mets signed him before last season. He was mostly a relief pitcher, but the Mets wanted him to start.

That has worked out, but it has made his $12 million player option for the 2027 season one that seems likely to be declined.

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Things could change if Holmes were to get hurt, but for now, he's pitching his way into free agency.

MLB Trade Rumors' Darragh McDonald shared more thoughts on Holmes' future in a new article.

"A decent starting pitcher can beat $12MM these days, even one in his mid-30s," McDonald writes. "In the most recent offseason, Nick Martinez got $13MM from the Rays for his age-35 season. Chris Bassitt got $18.5MM from the Orioles for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly got two years and $40MM from the Diamondbacks starting at age-37. Adrian Houser got two years and $22MM from the Giants beginning with his age-33 campaign, even though he had to settle for a minor league deal a year prior. Holmes hasn’t been getting as many strikeouts as Kelly or Bassitt but he was comparable to Martinez and Houser last year, with far more grounders than anyone in that group. He’s not an ace but there could be a path to something better than what will be left on his deal."

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Holmes has a 3.38 ERA in his time with the Mets and has mostly stayed healthy, which would be one worry for a reliever turning into a starter.

There are no guarantees he can keep it up. But if Holmes stays solid the rest of this season, expect him to decline that player option and head to the open market.

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