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KINGSTON, Jamaica – Time has essentially run out for millions of people in Jamaica to prepare for deadly Hurricane Melissa’s onslaught as the monster storm undergoes “extreme rapid intensification” ahead of its likely catastrophic landfall in the coming days.
According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Melissa is centered about 120 miles to the south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, making it a monster Category 4 hurricane.
The NHC said strengthening is expected to continue, and the storm will likely become a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane as it creeps closer to Jamaica.
Melissa claimed at least three lives in the Dominican Republic last week as the storm stalled in the Caribbean, lashing Hispaniola with several inches of rain.
Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency confirmed a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, left two people dead on Thursday, and a falling tree killed a man in his 70s in Marigot during flooding on Wednesday.
But now the potentially historic hurricane is setting its sights on Jamaica, where the latest forecast from the NHC presents a potentially worst-case scenario of a storm that will continue to strengthen before slamming the southern coast of the Caribbean island at a near-snail’s pace, unleashing days of torrential rain, catastrophic winds and potentially deadly flash flooding, landslides and storm surge.
And warnings for residents and visitors to the island are becoming more dire.
“Seek shelter now,” the NHC warned on Sunday. “Damaging winds and heavy rainfall (Sunday) and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.”
Forecasters are also warning of “extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities.”
Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are also expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely leading to infrastructural damage and isolation of communities.
The Dominican Republic is also bracing for Melissa to lash the region with heavy rain through the middle of the week, likely leading to flash flooding and landslides there.
After Hurricane Melissa crosses Jamaica, Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos will all need to keep an eye on the storm as the NHC says there is an increasing risk of significant storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain by the middle of the week.
Hurricane Warnings now cover Jamaica, while Hurricane Watches cover southwestern parts of Haiti and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguín.
The storm remains just inching along at 5 mph and is expected to continue its westward motion through Sunday, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday, bringing the powerful hurricane near or directly over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Airports, seaports closed; Jamaica activates emergency operations center
The Jamaican government said that it activated the country’s emergency operation center, and emergency generators, medical supplies and fuel are in place ahead of the storm.
“We have over 50 generators ready to go and to be deployed so that within 72 hours of a storm, 80% of NWC customers will be able to get back portable water,” Matthew Samuda, Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, said during a Friday press conference. “This is a marked difference from the last time around.”
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Officials said they closed the Kingston airport at 9 p.m. Saturday, and the Port Authority of Jamaica said all seaports have also been closed and will remain closed until conditions improve.
Kingston Harbor opens to the south, and the airport is on a peninsula in the harbor. “Storm surge up to 10 feet above normal high tide is forecast for somewhere on the southern coast of Jamaica, east of where the center comes ashore,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “If that occurs in Kingston or just west of the city, there will be widespread damage to critical infrastructure.”
The Jamaica Met Service noted that soils are saturated from prior rain events, which could lead to mudslides as heavy rain from Melissa moves over the area.
FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray is in Kingston as the island prepares for the storm and spoke to an official on Sunday morning about the impending disaster.
Jamaica’s Minister of Labor and Social Security Pearnel Charles Jr. said the country is making every effort to “save lives” ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s worst impacts.
Residents on the south-central part of the island are being told to seek higher ground. Charles is also a member of parliament representing this part of the country.
“We’ve asked persons to not wait until it gets difficult to evacuate or to save you,” Charles said. “If there is ever a time to listen and to take action, this is now.”
Charles said they are already seeing storm surge in the Rocky Point area as of Sunday morning.
“In the Rocky Point area, which is one of the areas along the southern coast, we were already seeing storm surges,” he continued. “We were already hearing the roar and the wrath of the seas.”
The last landfalling hurricane Jamaica experienced was in 2012 with Category 1 Hurricane Sandy, which caused major infrastructure damage. Melissa is forecast to make landfall at a Category 4.
“We are looking at significant damage if this continues on this current trajectory,” Charles said.
What are the expected impacts from Hurricane Melissa?
Forecasts are warning of catastrophic flooding as the storm batters Jamaica with heavy rain for days. The NHC predicts widespread rainfall totals of 15-30 inches across Jamaica and southern Hispaniola into Wednesday, with locally higher amounts of 40 inches or more possible.
But the NHC warns those rainfall totals are incomplete, with even more rain likely beyond Tuesday, but the uncertainty around Melissa’s track and speed beyond then preclude confidence in storm-total predictions.
“Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,” the NHC said.
And of course, the potential for destructive winds.
“Don’t make foolish decisions,” urged Jamaica’s Minister of Telecommunications and Transportation, Hon. Daryl Vaz. “Don’t make stupid decisions like coming out in the middle of the storm to see what’s happening. Please. I’m making a special appeal because we are in a very, very serious time over the next few days, and we need all Jamaica to bond together.”
Cuba may see 6-12 inches of rain, with some spots reaching 18 inches as Melissa takes aim there later in the week.
In addition, Melissa’s massive wind field and slow crawl toward Jamaica will trigger a powerful storm surge along the southern coast of Jamaica from late Monday through Tuesday morning, with peak storm surge heights reaching 9-13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Hurricane Melissa makes landfall.
The NHC said that tropical storm conditions have likely already started in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected to begin on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected across portions of Haiti on Sunday. The NHC said the potential for hurricane conditions within the watch area in Haiti has diminished for Sunday but warned that there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday.
Hurricane conditions are also possible in the watch area across eastern Cuba on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
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