Markets drown in Red Sea: Rupee bleeds, bears maul Street

Synopsis

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the dollar, breaching 94 and nearing 95, as rising crude oil prices fueled fears of a prolonged Gulf war. Indian equities also suffered significant declines, marking a fifth consecutive week of losses. Analysts warn of further depreciation for the rupee if the conflict persists and central bank intervention remains subdued.

Mumbai: The Indian rupee fell to a record on Friday, breaching the 94-per-dollar mark for the first time and teetering on the brink of 95, as surging crude oil prices weighed on the currency over fears that the Gulf war shows little sign of ending soon. Indian equities also got mauled-indices tumbled over 2% on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive week of declines-the longest losing bout since August-as investors remained wary despite US President Donald Trump extending the pause on attacks on Iran's power plants by 10 days.

Weak global cues and concerns over oil prices weighed on sentiment, with analysts warning of further near-term declines. In the event of the conflict continuing to rage unchecked amid subdued central bank intervention, some traders are expecting the Indian currency to sink even further. The rupee closed at 94.81 to the dollar on Friday, weakening 84 paise from its previous close of 93.97. The rupee weakened to 94.85 at its lowest on Friday and has declined over 3.5% this month, LSEG data showed. Brent crude oil prices rose by $1.87, or 1.73%, to $109.88 a barrel. While state-run banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, the intervention was muted, traders said.

Agencies

Currency likely to fall further, say experts; indices tumble over 2% amid bear attacks

Strait Closure Taking Toll
That makes the rupee vulnerable to further depreciation, with many traders incorporating levels as weak as 97 per dollar into their forecasts.

"Nothing really changes until the Strait of Hormuz opens up," said Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency at Kotak Securities. "Even if the intensity of the war eases a bit, as long as there's still friction around the strait and oil is hovering near $115, the rupee could easily drift towards the 96 to 97 per dollar range."

The NSE Nifty closed at 22,819.60, down 486.85 points or 2.1%, while the BSE Sensex ended at 73,583.22, falling 1,690.23 points or 2.3%. Both indices declined 1.3% over the past week. The Volatility Index (VIX) urged 8.7% to a four-year high of 26.8, reflecting heightened near-term risk expectations.

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