Marcos Impeachment Bid Signals More Philippine Uncertainty Ahead

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(Bloomberg) — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is facing his first impeachment complaint, the latest twist in his twin political battles against his own vice president and the fallout from a massive public corruption scandal.  

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Given Marcos’ strong support in the House of Representatives, where at least one-third must vote to impeach, the likelihood of success is very low. But the move signals another chapter of political turmoil could be on the horizon.

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The complaint — which in the Philippines can be filed by any citizen — accused Marcos of violating the constitution and betraying the public trust for the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte and for being a central figure in the kickbacks scheme related to flood control projects.

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The president’s communications office said he “fully upholds” the constitution, and earlier denied accusations of involvement in the corruption saga. The complaint’s allegations are based on media reports and statements earlier made by politicians, according to a copy seen by Bloomberg.

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As for the Duterte arrest, Marcos has said the move was in compliance with international commitments. 

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Neither the lawyer who filed the complaint, Andre de Jesus, nor the lawmaker who endorsed it, Jett Nisay, could immediately be reached for comment. 

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The attempt to impeach Marcos adds a political risk at a critical time for the Southeast Asian nation that’s already gripped by the unwinding of a widespread corruption related to flood-control infrastructure, which has slowed economic growth and hit investor sentiment. 

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The complaint also offers both potential upside and risks for Marcos. 

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If it fails, Marcos gets some breathing room as, by law, no other impeachment case can be brought against him for a year. 

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That rule was recently reinforced by the country’s Supreme Court when dismissing the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. The daughter of the former president has gone from Marcos’ ally to top political rival since their election victory in 2022. 

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But the bureaucratic time and energy for the complaint to wind its way through the House could also distract from pursuing fresh impeachment charges against Sara Duterte when the one-year window opens again next month. That will place the country in a rare situation where its two top leaders are both facing attempts to remove them from office.  

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The complaint will undergo hearings in the House, which is led by Marcos’ allies including his son, House Majority Leader Sandro Marcos.

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Key lawmakers aligned with Marcos have already expressed doubt that he’ll be impeached. Congressman Joel Chua, who heads the public accountability committee, said it “faces a steep and difficult path in the House.” 

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Congressman Jonathan Flores, vice-chairperson of the justice committee that will hear the complaint, said Marcos is supported by “a clear supermajority across party lines” in the House. 

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The impeachment complaint against Marcos is unlikely to prosper given the support he has at the House, but it could fuel public dissatisfaction towards the president whose popularity has already declined due to the corruption scandal, according to Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde in Manila.