March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 10 seed is most likely to win in first round?

The 7-10 split is always a key piece in crafting a winning tournament bracket. 

Who will pull off double-digit upsets this year? 

No. 10 UCF (21-11) meets No. 7 UCLA (23-11) in the East Region. No. 10 Missouri (20-12) faces No. 7 Miami, Fla. (25-8) in the West Region. No. 10 Texas A&M (21-11) meets No. 7 Saint Mary's (27-5) in the South Region, and No. 10 Santa Clara (26-8) takes on No. 7 Kentucky (21-13) in the Midwest Region. 

The No. 10 seed is 62-97 in the first round — a winning percentage of .389. The No. 10 seeds were 2-2 last season – and Arkansas made a run to the Sweet 16. 

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March Madness upset predictions 2026

No. 10 UCF vs. No. 7 UCLA

Odds: UCLA -6

Why this can happen: UCLA guard Donovan Dent suffered a calf strain in the Big Ten semifinals against Purdue, but he is expected to be ready for the matchup against the Knights, who are making their second tournament appearance under Johnny Dawkins. Guards Riley Kugel (14.4 ppg.) and Themus Fulks (14.1 ppg.) form a strong backcourt, and 7-foot-2 center John Bol is a shot-blocking presence on the interior. Will that impact the Bruins' front line? 

SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Saint Mary's

Odds: Saint Mary's -2.5

Why this can happen: The Aggies will make their first tournament appearance under coach Bucky McMillan, and “Bucky Ball” produced 87.7 points per game this season. That ranked ninth in the nation. Rashaun Agee (14.7 ppg.) – a 6-foot-7 forward – had 13 double-doubles for Texas A&M this season. Saint Mary's is making its fifth straight tournament appearance, and the Gaels are 3-1 in the first round the last four years. 

No. 10 Missouri vs. No. 7 Miami, Fla. 

Odds: Miami -1.5 

Why this can happen: This is a great matchup. Miami won 25 games under first-year coach Jai Lucas, and seniors Malik Reneau (18.8 ppg.) and Tre Donaldson (16.5 ppg.) lead a team that scores 81.9 points per game. Missouri guard Mark Mitchell (18.3 ppg.) is a Duke transfer who scored 32 points in each of the Tigers' last two games. Missouri was 3-6 against ranked teams this year, but they did beat Florida 76-74 on Jan. 3. 

IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South

No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky

Odds: Kentucky -4.5 

Why this can happen: Santa Clara is the most intriguing No. 10 seed. The Broncos are going to get their shots – they rank sixth in the nation in field-goal attempts. Herb Sendek – a former Kentucky assistant under Rick Pitino – is 2-1 in the first round as a No. 10 seed in the NCAA tournament. Christian Hammond (15.8 ppg.) shoots 40% from 3-point range, and the Broncos were 8-7 in Quads 1-2 this year. This could be a dangerous game for the Wildcats.

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

Which 10 seed is the best bet for an upset?

UCF was 3-3 against ranked teams against a tough Big 12 schedule, which was part of the reason it stayed off the bubble. It's not a glamorous upset pick, but it could happen. 

The other three games are validation tests for SEC teams. 

Kentucky has been inconsistent from week to week under second-year coach Mark Pope, and that could turn into a run-and-shoot game. Santa Clara has lost just one game this season when it hits more than 10 shots from 3-point range, and that was an 82-79 loss to Arizona State on Dec. 13.

Which style wins in the Texas A&M-St. Mary's matchup? The Gaels rank seventh in the nation in scoring defense (64.6 ppg) and first in free-throw percentage (80.5%). The Aggies are 1-6 when limited to less than 75 points this season. 

Missouri-Miami just feels like a game that will come down to the final few possessions. The Tigers lost as a No. 6 in the tournament last season. Will they get revenge in Dennis Gates' second season? The Tigers enter the tournament on a three-game losing streak. It's close, but Texas A&M feels like the best bet for a first-round upset on the No. 10 line. A victory there could set up a second-round matchup with Houston. Those teams met in the second round in 2024, and the Cougars  pulled out a 100-95 victory in overtime.