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Will the Hawks break up the chalk?
No. 9 Iowa is the lowest seed in the Elite Eight, which begins Saturday.
Iowa has the chance to become the third No. 9 seed in the expanded bracket era to reach the Final Four. The Hawkeyes are one of four Big Ten teams in the Elite Eight.
Iowa faces No. 3 Illinois in the South Region final on Saturday in an all-Big Ten matchup that guarantees the conference one Final Four spot. No. 2 Purdue will try to upset No. 1 Arizona in the West Region final on Saturday.
No. 1 Michigan takes on No. 6 Tennessee in the Midwest Region on Sunday, and No. 1 Duke will face No. 2 UConn in the East Region. The Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
We are 43-13 S/U and 28-28 ATS in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Here are our picks for the Elite Eight matchups.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Latest news and more
March Madness picks, predictions for Elite Eight
Saturday, March 28
- No. 3 Illinois (-7) vs. No. 9 Iowa (South), 6:09 p.m., TBS/TruTV
Can Iowa coach Ben McCollum lead one more Big Ten upset? The Hawkeyes average just 6.7 turnovers per game in the tournament – and that deliberate pace will test the Illini's defense. Bennett Stirtz is 6-of-28 from 3-point range in the tournament – a number that will have to improve against Illinois. The Hawkeyes also relied on bench scoring from Alvaro Folgueiras – a 6-foot-10 forward who is averaging 14.7 points per game in the tournament.
The Illini are clicking on both ends of the floor. The Illini's opponents are shooting 24.4% from 3-point range in three tournament games. All five Illinois starters average double figures – and four have hit double figures in tournament games. Freshmen David Mirkovic and Keaton Wagler have handled the tournament experience.
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Mirkovic is averaging 16.7 points on 52.6% shooting, and Wagler is averaging 15 points on 42.1% from the floor. That efficiency has been a huge plus, and Andrej Sojakovic averages 14.3 points off the bench in the tournament. Illini coach Brad Underwood is looking for his first Final Four trip.
Illinois beat Iowa 75-69 on Jan. 11 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Hawkeyes committed just eight turnovers in that game, but Stirtz was limited to 12 points on 5 of 17 shooting. Illini guard Kylan Boswell had 17 points and one turnover in that game. Stirtz will have to be better for Iowa to pull this off.
Illinois is 3-2 S/U and 3-2 ATS when favored by seven points or less. Iowa is 0-3 S/U and 1-2 ATS as an underdog of 4.5 points or more. The Illini are simply playing too well to pick against them.
Pick: Illinois 74, Iowa 64
DECOURCY: Iowa proves Cinderella isn't dead, she just changed jerseys
- No. 1 Arizona (-6.5) vs. No. 2 Purdue (West), 8:49 p.m., TBS/TruTV
Can anybody stop Arizona? The Wildcats routed No. 5 Arkansas 109-88 in the Sweet 16, and all five starters scored 14 points or more. Arizona shot 63.8% from the floor, and Purdue will have to string together stops against a relentless offense. Freshman Brayden Burries averaged 19 points on 64.3% shooting in three-tournament games, and Koa Peat averaged 17.3 points on 56.7% shooting. Can the Boilermakers force the freshman into tougher shot selection on the Elite Stage?
Purdue counters with an experienced group that includes seniors Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufmann-Renn. Renn averages 21 points in the tournament, Loyer (18.7 ppg.) and Smith (18 ppg.) are not far behind. All three players have stepped up at various points in the Big Ten tournament and NCAA tournament; with Kaufmann-Renn's tip-in for against No. 11 Texas for a 79-77 victory the latest magical moment. The Boilermakers are 2-6 S/U in Sweet 16 games under Matt Painter.
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That includes an 0-5 record against No. 1 seeds. Purdue will have a chance if it maintains if it continues to generate assists from Smith and forces Arizona to slow down. The Wildcats were held to less than 80 points in both of their losses this season, and Purdue is 3-1 S/U and 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
Is that too much to ask? Tommy Lloyd, the Sporting News Coach of the Year, has Arizona playing at a top-shelf level right now. Arizona is 5-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS as a favorite of 5.5 points or less.
Pick: Arizona 82, Purdue 78
POHNL: Arizona freshmen coming up big at the right time
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Sunday, March 29
- No. 1 Michigan (-x) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (Midwest), 2:15 p.m., CBS
Michigan won its first three tournament games by an average of 20.3 points per game. The Wolverines are clicking on offense around Yaxel Lendeborg, who had 23 points and 12 rebounds in a 90-77 victory against No. 4 Alabama on Friday.
The Wolverines are shooting 47.3% from 3-point range in the tournament – and they have multiple scoring options on the perimeter. Elliot Cadeau has just four turnovers in the tournament, and center Aday Mara continues to be a force on both ends with 14.3 points and three blocks per game in the tournament. Michigan coach Dusty May has the Wolverines playing at a high level on both sides – and the second-half defense was a difference against the Crimson Tide. Alabama shot 32.2% from the field in the second half.
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Will Tennessee bring something extra with long-time coach Rick Barnes trying to reach the Final Four for the first time? The Vols rely less on the 3-point game, and guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie will be a challenge for Cadeau. Forwards Nate Ament (6-foot-10) and Felix Okpara (6-foot-11) can challenge Mara and Morez Johnson inside, and Jaylen Carey – a 267-pound forward – also helped Tennessee control the boards against Iowa State. It will take more to slow down the Wolverines. Both teams struggle with turnovers at times, so that will be another factor to watch.
The Vols are 6-10 S/U when they allow more than 70 points. Michigan has been held to less than 70 points just three times this season.
Pick: Michigan 82, Tennessee 72
DECOURCY: Michigan's Elliot Cadeau is proving Dusty May right
- No. 1 Duke (-5.5) vs. No. 2 UConn (East), 5:05 p.m., CBS
Duke is healthy at the right time. Patrick Ngongba II played 19 minutes in the 80-75 victory against No. 5 St. John's on Friday, and guard Caleb Foster returned and played 17 minutes. It's an all-hands moment against the Huskies in what should be another instant classic Elite Eight matchup.
Isaiah Evans is coming off a clutch 25-point performance against the Red Storm, too. There is more than enough help around Cameron Boozer, who averages 21 points and 11.3 rebounds in the tournament. Duke is shooting just 27.9% from 3-point range in the tournament, and that will need to improve against UConn.
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The Huskies muscled out a 67-63 victory against No. 3 Michigan State in the Sweet 16 on Friday. Dan Hurley has a chance to lead the Huskies to the Final Four for the third time in four seasons, and seniors Tarris Reed and Alex Karaban have been pivotal in this tournament run. Reed averages 20 points and 15 rebounds in the tournament, and the 1-on-1 matchup in the paint with Boozer comes into focus. Both star players need to stay out of foul trouble. Karaban averages 22 points and is shooting 44% from 3-point range in three tournament games. The Huskies also have Silas Demery Jr. back, so both teams should be prepared.
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UConn has lost just one game when it allows less than 68 points in a game. The Blue Devils are 3-1 S/U and 1-3 ATS when favored by less than seven points. Duke coach Jon Scheyer leads the Blue Devils to another win in a close call against the Huskies.
Pick: Duke 70, UConn 66
TREACY: Isaiah Evans' 'special' performance powers Duke to Elite Eight
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