Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo shrinks after Adams quits race, poll finds

Democratic nominee and mayoral front-runner Zohran Mamdani’s lead over Andrew Cuomo in the race for City Hall has narrowed after incumbent Mayor Eric Adams exited the race, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Mamdani leads the race with 46% of likely voters backing him, followed by independent candidate Cuomo with 33% support and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa with 15%, the Quinnipiac University survey finds.

In a Quinnipiac survey that gauged a 4-way race last month, Mamdani received 45% support to 23% for Cuomo, 15% for Sliwa and 12% support. Other polls showed Mamdani with a hefty lead in a four-person race.

Mamdani’s lead shrinks from 22 points to 13 points in the new poll.

The findings show that nearly all of Adams’ supporters turned to Cuomo, the three-term ex-governor, as the alternative to Mamdani while Sliwa’s support didn’t budge.

Quinnipiac said Mamdani still has the upper hand, but noted the substantial shift to Cuomo without Adams in the race.

“The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact,” said Quinnipiac U. Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow.

The Cuomo campaign tried to claim the findings show he has momentum — even though Mamdani also picked up support from the last poll — and that he has a shot at winning in a two-way race with Mamdani if Sliwa were to drop out like Adams.

“Today’s Quinnipiac poll confirms what New Yorkers are seeing across the five boroughs — this race is shifting decisively. Andrew Cuomo is up 10 points since September, while Zohran Mamdani remains stagnant and Curtis Sliwa continues to fade away,” Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi said.

Mamdani’s strongest voter support comes from Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%,) voters 18 to 34 years old (62%), voters 35 to 49 years old (60%), and voters who identify as not being part of any religious group (69%). He also leads Cuomo among black and Hispanic voters.

Cuomo’s strongest support comes from Jewish voters (60%).

Meanwhile 54% of Republicans support Sliwa while 37% support Cuomo.

More voters say Mamdani is a more ethical candidate than Cuomo or Sliwa.

Cuomo’s biggest challenge in garnering more support may be is own reputation, including sexual harassment allegations that he denies but that forced him out of office in 2021. A majority — 52% of voters — view him unfavorably.

Conversely, far more voters said Cuomo had the “right kind of experience” to be mayor.

Voters were asked — regardless of who they support, which candidate would do the best job of making sure New York City’s interests are best represented in D.C. with President Trump in the White House.

It was nearly a draw with 35% saying Mamdani, 34% Cuomo, and 22% Sliwa, with 9% having no opinion.

“Much has been said about the issue not on the ballot but looming over the race: President Trump. Both Mamdani and Cuomo make the case they’ll be the best guardrail over New York City’s interests under Trump. But voters don’t see much daylight between them,” said Quinnipiac’s Snow.

Significantly more voters said Mamdani would do a better job of lowering housing costs, 48% to 25% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa with 14% undecided.

More voters said Cuomo would do a better job of managing the economy — 41% to 35% for Mamdani, 15% for Sliwa and the rest with no opinion.

Voters were asked which candidate’s views matched their own on the Israel – Hamas conflict.

Nearly half — 45% — say Mamdani, 26% Cuomo, and 13% Sliwa, with 20% undecided.

Considerably more voters said their sympathies are more with the Palestinians than Israelis in the Middle East conflict — 43% to 22% with a third not offering an opinion.

The poll was concluded before President Trump announced the first phase of a peace/hostage release plan between Israel and Hamas.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 likely city voters from October 3 to 7. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.