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(Bloomberg) — Shares of Malaysian petrochemical producer Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd. have doubled this month as fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure drive up global fertilizer prices, with analysts predicting more gains if the waterway remains shut.
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The stock is set to finish the month at the top of the MSCI Asia benchmark after a 102% climb since the war in Iran began. In comparison, the Asian gauge has fallen more than 13%. At least seven brokerages have upgraded Petronas Chemicals this month, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
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Competition for fertilizer is intensifying ahead of the sowing season, with the Middle East accounting for more than a third of urea exports and nearly a quarter of ammonia. That is set to lift earnings for the Malaysian company, as higher prices and margins persist if disruptions last through year-end.
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“Petronas Chemicals’ feedstock is stable, and will not be disrupted” as it’s obtained locally, said Kaushal Ladha, head of Thailand research for Macquarie Capital. “Most people had not been positioning for this stock so any good news can move it in a very significant way.”
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Malaysian stocks have stood out this month as the war in Iran upended markets globally, helped by its status as one of Asia’s few net energy exporters. Foreign investors have net bought $25.3 million of local shares in March even as they sold equities in most other emerging Asian markets.
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CGS International Securities raised Petronas Chemicals’ price target by 19% to 6.58 ringgit ($1.63) after boosting its 2026 core net profit estimate by 44%.
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A longer-than-expected closure of the strait “may cause severe feedstock shortages for Petronas Chemicals’ naphtha-based competitors and create conditions for a parabolic increase in selling prices,” CGS International analyst Raymond Yap wrote in a note.
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