Malaysia’s Anwar on Defensive as Ally’s Success Turns to Rivalry

rv1x]kt3yq5yf9uygn6}req2_media_dl_4.png Parliament of Malaysia

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Malaysia’s balance of power is tilting away from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as his erstwhile ally Barisan Nasional emerges as the biggest threat to his bid for a second term in office.

Article content

Barisan Nasional’s recent success in two state elections built on a sentiment of unity among the country’s ethnic Malay majority has left Anwar’s multiracial Pakatan Harapan coalition with a narrow path to victory at the next national elections.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Meanwhile, his own supporters are becoming increasingly disillusioned by the slow pace of reforms and the sense that the benefits of Malaysia’s strong economy aren’t being evenly distributed. 

Article content

Article content

“Anwar is no longer setting the political tempo,” said Asrul Sani, an associate vice president at The Asia Group. “Rather than benefiting from incumbency, Anwar appears to be experiencing the reverse, with dissatisfaction toward the government increasingly reflected in the ballot box.”

Article content

In an election over the weekend, Pakatan lost control of the Negeri Sembilan state after eight years in charge, winning only 11 out of 36 seats it contested. That effectively allowed Barisan and national opposition party Perikatan Nasional to form a supermajority. 

Article content

The defeat comes on the heels of its loss last month in Johor, where Pakatan won only eight of 56 seats contested, and Sabah last year, where it won a single seat. 

Article content

In both Johor and Negeri Sembilan, Barisan and Perikatan loosely collaborated, effectively consolidating Malaysia’s two biggest Malay Muslim parties — former ruling party United Malays National Organisation and Islamist party Parti Islam Se-Malaysia. Malay Muslims make up nearly two-thirds of the country’s population. 

Article content

Article content

“The threat to Pakatan is that Malay voters consolidate behind Barisan and Perikatan, while its traditional supporters become less enthusiastic and stay home,” Asrul said. “Malay unity will remain a running theme.”

Article content

Barisan and Perikatan leaders have both spoken about continuing their cooperation, including possibly at the next national vote, which could severely dent Pakatan’s prospects in mixed race constituencies.

Article content

Anwar, who came to power in 2022 after cobbling together various coalitions, has faced criticism for not delivering as a reformer. His government was also marred by several corruption scandals and was also slow in implementing long-promised legislative reforms. 

Article content

As well, cost-of-living concerns contrast with Malaysia’s AI-driven economic growth, especially after his government reduced the monthly quota of fuel subsidies following the rise in energy costs from the war in Iran. 

Article content

“Anwar has a trust deficit among large sections of the population, and that really hurts him,” said Bridget Welsh, a researcher of Malaysian politics with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia, adding that “there’s not enough trickle down from foreign investment to improve ordinary people’s lives.”