Luka Doncic's scorching start to the season might have you wondering how sustainable it is.
I know I certainly am.
It's not like we haven't seen Doncic put up big numbers before. He's already led the NBA in scoring twice, including last season when he averaged 33.5 points per game. But his current pace is something else entirely: 40.1 points per game through nine appearances.
That's a scoring average only Wilt Chamberlain has maintained over a full NBA season.
So how sustainable is it? Let's take a closer look.
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Is Luka Doncic doing anything notably different?
The first thing to look at is whether Doncic is doing anything different.
The answer? Not really.
There are a lot of numbers in the following table that appeal to nerds like me. If you're not interested in knowing how often Doncic is scoring in isolation compared to the pick-and-roll or how efficiently he's scoring in transition, just know that his scoring diet hasn't changed dramatically.
The biggest difference is Doncic — and the Lakers as a team — are getting out in transition more. Establishing their early offense was a focus for JJ Redick heading into the season.
Doncic's isolation scoring is up, but he's led the NBA in isolation scoring multiple times in his career.
| Play type | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | Difference |
| Pick-and-roll PPG | 11.2 | 11.2 | +0 |
| Pick-and-roll PPP | 1.04 | 1.11 | +0.07 |
| Isolation PPG | 6.1 | 8.2 | +2.1 |
| Isolation PPP | 1.17 | 1.19 | +0.02 |
| Transition PPG | 5.3 | 7.2 | +1.9 |
| Transition PPP | 1.05 | 1.23 | +0.18 |
If he's averaging 40 points per game, surely he's making his signature step-backs at an absurd rate, right?
Not quite.
Yes, Doncic is taking more pull-up 3s this season, but the improvement in accuracy has been relatively modest. He's made almost half of his catch-and-shoot 3s, but he's only attempting 3.7 per game out of 24.6 field-goal attempts.
| Shot type | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | Difference |
| Catch-and-shoot 3PA | 2.8 | 3.7 | +0.9 |
| Catch-and-shoot 3P% | 37.9% | 45.5% | +7.6 pp |
| Pull-up 3PA | 7.5 | 9.7 | +2.2 |
| Pull-up 3P% | 36.3% | 39.1% | +2.8 pp |
Doncic hasn't even dramatically improved as a shooter inside the 3-point line, although his midrange numbers stand out.
| Shot type | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | Difference |
| Restricted area FG% | 81.6% | 72.2% | -9.4 pp |
| Floater range FG% | 55.3% | 59.5% | +4.2 pp |
| Midrange FG% | 44.3% | 54.8% | +10.5 pp |
Oh, and Doncic is averaging a similar number of free-throw attempts (11.3) to last season (10.1).
That's not to say there won't be some regression. He probably won't continue to make half of his catch-and-shoot 3s and midrange attempts. He's also unlikely to keep shooting as well as he has from the free-throw line. (Doncic has never shot 80 percent from the charity stripe, and he's up to 87.3 percent this season.)
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But won't Luka Doncic gas out?
It's a fair question with Doncic, who has faced conditioning questions throughout his career.
The good news for the Lakers is that Doncic is actually taking a similar number of shots (24.6) as last season (22.8). His usage rate has increased from 36.8 percent to 39.8 percent, but his minutes are practically identical (36.0 compared to 35.8).
Basically, Doncic isn't being asked to play significantly more minutes or take an unprecedented number of shots to get there. It helps that he appeared leaner entering the season, which could help him maintain his production over a longer stretch.
Why don't teams just double-team Luka Doncic?
We might see teams throw even more attention at Doncic in the days, weeks and months to come, but they have to be careful with how much they try to limit Doncic's scoring because he's such a good passer.
Doncic is similar to Nikola Jokic in that way.
It doesn't help that the Lakers have built this team around Doncic to make it harder to double him.
Try to take the ball out of his hands when he's sizing up defenders, and he'll kick it out to Austin Reaves or one of the Lakers' shooters. Trap him when he runs a pick-and-roll, and it'll lead to a 4-on-3 situation. Send a second defender when he gets inside the 3-point line, and you risk Walker Kessler standing wide open underneath the rim.
This is a great breakdown of how Doncic picks apart virtually every scheme:
How Luka Doncic destroyed every TrailBlazers coverage (Film Breakdown) https://t.co/kwcI0ItKBG
— Collin Hatfield (@chs__x) November 8, 2026Reminder: Doncic is also dishing out 7.7 assists per game. So yes, teams could start doubling him more, but it might not work out much better for them.
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So you're saying Luka Doncic is going to average 40 points?
Doncic isn't playing significantly more minutes than he did last season, and the Lakers have surrounded him with enough playmaking and shooting for him to do what he does best.
The question, of course, is whether that means he'll average 40 points per game for an entire season.
Could he? Yes. Will he? History suggests otherwise.
Maintaining this level of production over 82 games is a colossal task, even for someone as talented as Doncic. But even with some regression, he could be on track for one of the highest-scoring seasons in NBA history.
