LSU vs. Alabama prediction: Odds, picks, and best bet for SEC showdown

It wasn’t that long ago that LSU was beating Clemson to allegedly announce itself as a contender for the College Football Playoff. That same week, Alabama lost to Florida State, putting head coach Kalen DeBoer in one of the hottest seats in the country.

Things are quite different now.

DeBoer and his Crimson Tide are the toast of Tuscaloosa thanks to a seven-game winning streak, while LSU fired its coach, Brian Kelly, in the middle of a 1-3 stretch to essentially render its season meaningless.

The Tigers will play their first game since Kelly’s departure on Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

LSU vs. Alabama odds, prediction

The “new-coach bump” is a real phenomenon. Seasoned bettors often tread carefully with off-field narratives, but there is something to this one. It’s human nature to want to ball out in the wake of a change on the sidelines. It’s not just in football, but something we see in other sports.

But it’s not just the reaction to LSU’s coaching change that makes the Bayou Bengals dangerous on Saturday. This is a loaded roster, with NFL talent all over the field. That ability hasn’t translated to results in 2025, but it’s still there. Perhaps the new, interim regime can unlock it.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is one of the favorites to win the Heisman. Getty Images

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Alabama’s been rolling on offense thanks to the emergence of Heisman-hopeful Ty Simpson at quarterback, but things won’t come easy against LSU’s terrific defense, which deserves a better fate than a 5-3 record.

The Tigers wilted against Texas A&M in their last outing, but that was a case of things turning toxic, with the writing on the wall that Kelly was headed out the door. We’ll draw a line through that performance as an outlier.

We’ll also bet on LSU’s offense getting a jolt with Kelly’s departure. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier needs a strong finish to the campaign to recover some of his draft hype, and a nationally-televised game in primetime in Tuscaloosa ain’t a bad place to start.

Alabama should have enough to win this one, but LSU’s defense will keep things tight enough to warrant a bet on the Bayou Bengals as 10-point ‘dogs.

The Play: LSU +10 (-110, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.