Losing Notre Dame-USC is the price of conference realignment, and it is not the Trojans' fault

"Oh, now you want to protect a storied rivalry ... "

That should be the out-loud reaction after reading Pat Forde's report in Sports Illustrated about the tenuous future of the Notre Dame-USC series. Forde reports: "As it stands now, the game Oct. 18 in South Bend is the last scheduled meeting between the bluebloods. USC offered a one-year extension to the contract, adding a game in 2026 in Los Angeles, but Notre Dame rejected that in pursuit of another long-term deal." 

That reads like the autopsy report from the Notre Dame-Michigan series, not to mention other rivalries past such as Oklahoma-Nebraska, Texas-Texas A&M (since revived), Oklahoma-Oklahoma State and Oregon-Oregon State. The lesson? The price of conference realignment is tradition – even one that dates back nearly 100 years to 1926.

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Notre Dame-USC is no exception.

USC's case to discontinue Notre Dame game is valid  

Remember the gasps from Notre Dame and USC fans when Colin Cowherd teed this subject up on "The Herd" last May? 

"I'm going to ask a question: Why do they have to keep playing Notre Dame?" Cowherd said. "Colin, the history? Oh, gimme a break. College football punted on history last year." 

Cowherd was right. USC is in the Big Ten now. The Trojans were 8-5 in their first year in the Big Ten, and they were 0-3 in games where they had to travel two time zones or more with losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Maryland. 

Travel matters. The Trojans have four games where they have to travel two time zones or more, including Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska in Big Ten play. The trip to Notre Dame is the fourth game. USC also has a road game at Oregon this year. Call USC coach Lincoln Riley out all you want, but that would be a challenge for any coach in the FBS. 

In the past, the Trojans could use that every-other year trip to South Bend as a chance to showcase their brand in the Midwest. Now, they can do that against Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State. In 2024, USC lost 27-24 to the Wolverines and 33-30 to the Nittany Lions. Only two of the last 10 Notre Dame-USC games have been decided by seven points or less. 

USC will play at Penn State in 2026, at Ohio State in 2027 and at Michigan in 2028. Nobody will say it out loud, but those games can serve as de facto Notre Dame replacements. That is what the Trojans signed up for when they joined the Big Ten. The cost? Notre Dame.

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Notre Dame will create another new-aged rival

On May 6, Notre Dame announced a 12-year series with Clemson – the school that has dominated the ACC in the College Football Playoff era. That's a great move.

All six games those schools have played since 2015 have a memorable moment – from Dabo Swinney's "BYOG" speech in the rain on Oct. 3, 2015, to his response to "Tyler from Spartanburg" in a 31-23 win on Nov. 4, 2023. In between, there was a CFP semifinal and an ACC championship game. Swinney and Marcus Freeman will be ranked in the top five in most coach rankings lists this summer. There is an appeal between those teams that doesn't feel forced, and that could heat up in the next 12 years. 

That also will count toward Notre Dame's five-game arrangement with the ACC. The Irish began an arrangement with the ACC that required five games per year against the conference in 2014. Notre Dame is 18-2 against ACC schools since the 2021 season – with the only losses coming to Clemson and Louisville in 2023. That arrangement is easier than what USC faces in the Big Ten, and that's OK. 

Some of Notre Dame's best rivalries over the years do materialize organically. Army was the Irish's biggest rival in the 1940s. It was Michigan State in the 1960s, Miami in the 1980s and Michigan in the 1990s. Even the rivalry with Stanford has had moments. You could make the argument the last three years with Ohio State have been more riveting than anything else on the Irish's schedule. 

USC has been the constant, but is it the best rivalry on Notre Dame's schedule outside of the tradition factor? Look at the schools the Irish have played 20 or more times and a winning percentage is between 40% and 60% in the series between the schools – which suggests the rivalry is relatively even.

Notre Dame's best rivalries (minimum 20 games)

What conference do all of those schools play in now? The Big Ten, of course. Believe it or not, the team that falls just outside these parameters is Iowa, another Big Ten school. Notre Dame had a 13-8-3 record – a .604 winning percentage – when the schools played between 1921-1968. Who knew that we needed more Iowa-Notre Dame in our lives? 

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USC-Notre Dame breakup shouldn't be a surprise 

What are the potential end games? Notre Dame and USC could extend their series – but the truth is that is disadvantageous for the Trojans with the Big Ten schedule. Notre Dame fans might argue their strength of schedule is at least equal – but is it? 

It's close in 2025. The Irish open the season with Miami and Texas A&M in the first two games and play Boise State and Arkansas. Notre Dame's opponents had a combined record of 88-67 (.567) last year, and four teams won at least 10 games. USC's opponents had a combined record of 91-64 (.587). The Trojans also play FCS Missouri State and Notre Dame's record drives that strength of schedule up. It is even.

USC's schedule likely will be tougher and have more two-time zone trips on most years, however. 

The Irish will continue to cling to their independent status with half-in arrangements until realignment strikes again. Notre Dame could have saved the Big East by joining as a football member in the 1990s. It could have gone all-in on the ACC a decade ago. Either of those moves would have led to stronger conferences and perhaps less realignment chaos.

What's the next solution? You know this one. Notre Dame should join the Big Ten. All the rivals are there, and it makes total sense. That is why it will not happen. The ACC Grant of Rights deal ends in 2035-36. Hey, at least traditional rival Stanford is in the ACC now. 

USC is in a better position here, too, especially if the SEC adds a ninth conference game and agrees to a schedule arrangement with the Big Ten on one of its three non-conference games. If that happens, then other traditions such as Florida-Florida State and Clemson-South Carolina might be next on the cutting room floor. 

We can look toward the future, but we can't make pleas for rivalries to continue based on the past anymore. Not in a world where Oregon is in the Big Ten and Oregon State plays in the two-team Pac-12. That rivalry started in 1894. Not in a world where Oklahoma and Oklahoma State won't play. That rivalry started in 1904. 

History and tradition? In this college football world, that is not a good source of protection anymore. Notre Dame and USC fans are about to find that out.