Lilly Raises Sales Forecast on Optimism About Obesity Pill

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(Bloomberg) — Eli Lilly & Co. raised its full-year sales outlook on the strength of its weight-loss drugs and high hopes for its new obesity pill. 

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The drugmaker now sees 2026 sales rising to as much as $85 billion, up from its earlier guidance of up to $83 billion, it said in a statement Thursday. The company now sees 2026 profits in the range of $35.50 a share to $37 a share, higher than its earlier guidance of $33.50 a share to $35 a share. 

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Lilly and rival Novo Nordisk A/S have been locked in a fierce battle for the weight loss market, which analysts predict could reach $100 billion by the end of the decade. But over the past year, the two companies’ fortunes have diverged. While Novo predicted sales could drop as much as 13% this year due to intensifying competition and pricing pressures, Lilly forecast double-digit sales growth. 

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Sales of Lilly’s best-selling diabetes shot Mounjaro soared to $8.7 billion in the quarter, compared to estimates of $7.2 billion. Sales of blockbuster obesity shot Zepbound jumped to $4.2 billion, compared to estimates of $4 billion.

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The drugmaker also said its recently launched weight-loss pill, Foundayo, is off to a “strong start,” without providing sales figures. It said that over a dozen major telehealth platforms are already offering Foundayo, accounting for about 35% of prescriptions at launch.

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Lilly shares jumped as much as 6.7% as of 7 a.m. in New York, before the start of regular trading. The stock had slumped 23% from a record high reached in late November.

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Novo is already facing competition from cheaper generic versions of its best-selling drugs Ozempic and Wegovy in both India and Canada. While Lilly still has another decade of patent life left on its drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, the availability of cheaper alternatives could put pressure on Lilly’s medications. 

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Both companies agreed with the Trump administration to lower prices on their weight loss medications, in exchange for a promised expansion of Medicare coverage for the therapies. 

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Now, Novo and Lilly are racing to reach more patients with newly approved pills that offer a needle-free — and cheaper — alternative to shots. Lilly’s pill Foundayo received approval in April. It has tough competition against Novo’s pill, which has been enormously popular since the start, with analysts calling it one of the most successful drug launches ever. 

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That could in part be due to patients’ and doctors’ familiarity with Novo’s pill, which uses semaglutide, the same ingredient in its shots Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly’s pill, on the other hand, is a completely new drug. While no head-to-head comparison studies have been conducted yet, Novo’s pill appears to be slightly more effective based on the company’s trials. 

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Lilly has another highly effective experimental medicine waiting in the wings, called retatrutide. In a study earlier this year, it helped diabetic patients lose more weight than any drug currently on the market, underscoring its potential in the increasingly crowded race for next-generation therapies.

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Beyond obesity, Lilly is looking to bolster its pipeline through a spate of recent acquisitions. In the past two months, the company forged deals worth up to $7.8 billion for sleep drugmaker Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc and up to $7 billion for cancer drug developer Kelonia Therapeutics — two of its most expensive transactions ever. 

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Another $2.3 billion deal for cancer drugmaker Ajax Therapeutics Inc., announced on Monday, was further evidence of Lilly’s “intent to aggressively reinvest obesity cash flows to enhance its pipeline,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a note. 

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(Updates throughout.)

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