7 hours ago
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New York City is bleeding orange and blue as fans sit on pins and needles, hoping to clinch their first NBA Finals berth since 2000.
The books like where the Knicks are sitting after upsetting the Celtics in the last round.
The Knicks were +550 to advance past the Celtics and are now set up to face the Pacers as clear favorites throughout the betting market, coming in at -145 on DraftKings.
Tom Thibodeau’s group legitimately beat the Celtics; the Jayson Tatum injury had nothing to do with the Knicks’ performance to go up 3-1 in the series.
It is difficult, however, to expect the Knicks to outplay the Pacers in fourth quarters as they did against the Pistons and Celtics. The Indiana Pacers were second in the NBA in fourth-quarter points per game (29.1) during the regular season.
They also had the fourth-best fourth-quarter margin in the NBA (+2.0) behind only the Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Thunder.
Jalen Brunson will need to jump up a level to get the Knicks to the finals. NBAE via Getty ImagesThose impressive numbers during the regular season have continued in the playoffs.
Indiana has been shooting an insane 49.8 percent from the field in the fourth quarter, the second-best figure overall behind only the eliminated Clippers.
Their defense is a big piece of their late-game success and could be a major issue for the Knicks if they expect to pull games out late.
Indiana’s opponents are shooting just 41 percent from the field in the fourth quarter, the third-best among all playoff teams.
All of that considered, the Pacers have by far the best net margin in the NBA in fourth quarters.
If the Knicks didn’t pull off a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter of Game 1 against the Pistons and back-to-back 20-point comebacks in the second halves in Boston, they’d likely be in Cancun right now sipping on margaritas.
If you think I am focusing too much on the fourth quarter, consider this:
The Pacers have had the second-best offensive rating of all playoff teams, behind only the Cavaliers, whom they just eliminated impressively in five games.
The Knicks aren’t in the same ballpark, coming in at 110.7 (ninth best of the 16 playoff teams).
The Pacers love pushing the pace and could outlast the Knicks. APIndiana’s defensive rating (111.9) is about on par with the Knicks’ (110.6), albeit it does grade slightly below.
The Pacers have the fifth-best net rating in the NBA among all playoff teams (5.5), with the Thunder heads and tails above the rest of the pack (13.5), the Timberwolves (7.9), and the rest having been eliminated.
The Knicks have the lowest among remaining teams with a 0.1 net-rating.
It’s been a magical run for the Knicks, and this is no slander against what they’ve done this year. But from a betting perspective, there’s really no statistical advantage that favors the Knicks here.
If you have one, I’d love to hear the argument.
It’s not the most popular decision to fade the Knicks as favorites, especially in this market, but we’re here to make money.
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The Pacers wear teams down with their full-court press, arguably winning them the series last year, as the Knicks broke down due to injuries.
We’re backing Indiana here in a variety of ways, shopping the sportsbooks:
PICKS: Pacers Game 1 moneyline (+160, FanDuel) | Pacers win the series (+135, Caesars Sportsbook) | Pacers win Game 1 and the series (+265, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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