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I tried to tell you about the Pacers in the fourth quarter.
In a disaster of epic proportions, the Knicks squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 1 and are the first team in NBA playoff history to blow a lead of 14 or more points with 2:45 remaining.
Teams were previously 994-0 in the playoffs, but the Knicks’ collapse didn’t come from nowhere.
Sure, Aaron Nesmith had laser beams coming out of his hands and maybe even shooting out of his eyes as he nailed six 3-pointers, a record for the fourth quarter of a playoff game.
But in Wednesday’s column, I discussed the Pacers’ by-far-best net rating in the fourth quarter during the playoffs, and that rang true in their 138-135 overtime triumph.
If you’re sitting on a Pacers series win at +145 odds and Pacers win Game 1/Series +230 tickets, you’re in a good spot.
The Pacers play full-court, hard-nosed defense that wears opponents down. It’s a heck of a strategy by coach Rick Carlisle.
Data shows that home-court advantage is trending toward a thing of the past.
From 1980-94, home teams won at least 60 percent of their regular-season games, reaching as high as 67.9 percent in 1988.
New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) puts up a shot against Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) during the fourth quarter of Game 1 of the NBA basketball Eastern Conference final on May 21, 2025, in New York. APThat advantage is a thing of the past. In 2025, home teams won just 54 percent of their games, and the playoff trends for hosting teams are even more alarming.
To start these playoffs, road teams were an insane 30-30 straight up — the best they’ve been since 1980-81, per Stathead — before home teams recovered a bit to end the second round.
Follow The Post’s coverage of the Knicks in the 2025 NBA Playoffs
- Vaccaro: Relax, Knicks fans: There are reasons for hope after Game 1 botch-job
- Bondy: Worrying Knicks signs aren’t limited to NYC streets
- Knicks’ communication issues cropped up again in ugly Game 1 loss
- Knicks vow to learn from catastrophic collapse before must-win Game 2
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We are certainly entering a new era in which basketball games are more like blackjack hands, where we wait to see what the opposing team is going to shoot from beyond the arc.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Knicks. They did, after all, lead by 17 in the fourth quarter.
But the fourth quarter is certainly going to be an issue in each of these games, and they’ll need to tighten up if they want to win this series.
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Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns are critical advantages the Knicks will need to build on going forward.
For Indiana to come into Friday as six-point underdogs seems like nonsense, as the Pacers are well conditioned in these late-game situations.
Instead of backing them to win Game 2, which is surely the value side, I’ll take them to win the fourth quarter at +108 odds at FanDuel.
Aaron Nesmith was on fire in the fourth quarter Wednesday. APNeither team is particularly strong in the opening quarter of games, with the Knicks going 36-46 against the spread (ATS) in first quarters, while Indiana was a horrific 32-49-1.
Look for the Knicks to wash away this poor performance Friday by getting a win in what will be a drawn-out, exhausting series.
But the Pacers to win the fourth quarter is too tasty to ignore. They are 4-3 with three pushes in the fourth quarters of these playoffs (a 57.1 percent win rate at an average of price of +108).
THE PLAY: Pacers fourth-quarter moneyline (+108, FanDuel)
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