Kenyans worry a US duty-free trade deal might end and expose them to Trump’s tariffs

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — It’s crunch time for the maker of Levi’s and Wrangler jeans in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi. Hundreds of sewing machines whir in a crowded, air-conditioned factory. On another floor, workers pack clothes destined for the U.S. market.

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The fate of about 16,000 workers in the factory at the United Aryan export processing zone hangs in the balance. In September, a duty-free trade agreement between Kenya and the United States could expire under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA.

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The factory’s founder, Pankaj Bedi, said manufacturers would be unable to compete well in the U.S. market if the AGOA agreement is not renewed, due to the difficult business environment in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Without AGOA — meant to benefit African nations that meet certain U.S. expectations in areas including governance and human rights — many Kenyan goods would no longer have duty-free access to the U.S. market. And they would be exposed to the uncertainty of the Trump administration’s global tariff campaign.

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It’s a concern across the continent. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, speaking to journalists after his Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump, noted that AGOA is “going to be further discussed … it is top of mind for them as well” in the U.S. administration.

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Bedi said his business has benefited from 25 years of the AGOA agreement but will not survive if the deal is not extended again.

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“This time around, we are hoping that President Trump will pass it for a longer period, then a long-term strategy can come in play,” he said. The longest extension has been for a decade.

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In making his pitch, Bedi said he believes that Africa offers the perfect alternative sourcing to Asia with its large and youthful workforce. Seventy percent of people in sub-Saharan Africa are under 30, according to the United Nations.

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“I think the real shift of supply chain will happen, and Africa is the last frontier. We cannot go to the moon and start manufacturing there,” Bedi said.

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Kenya’s government would not comment on the deal or why it might be under threat.

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Economist Wangari Muikia said the new U.S. tariffs reflect a shift towards reviving American manufacturing, “consistent with Trump’s priority to re-shore jobs,” but warned that ending AGOA may “strain diplomatic ties and weaken American soft power.”

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African governments have promoted AGOA as a major job creation avenue.

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In Kenya, AGOA has led to the creation of 66,000 jobs since the program began in 2000, according to government statistics published in 2024. Kenya’s overall unemployment rate is 12.7%, but the rate among those under 35 is 67% — part of a wider issue for much of Africa’s booming young population.