Kentucky or Santa Clara? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are back in the NCAA tournament.

Just one year ago, Pope silenced the skeptics by taking a roster assembled in weeks to the Sweet 16, snapping a five-year drought and proving that his modern, high-octane system could translate to the sport’s biggest stage. Now, as a No. 7 seed in the 2026 bracket, the Wildcats aren't just looking to get back to the second weekend — they are looking to finish the job.

Standing in their way is a No. 10 Santa Clara team that resembles the very giant-killers Kentucky has struggled with in the past. Led by Herb Sendek, the Broncos are a top-30 offensive unit that thrives on the perimeter, creating a "mirror-match" scenario for a Kentucky defense that has been hit-or-miss during a physical SEC slate.

If Kentucky’s veteran backcourt of Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen can find their rhythm from deep, the Wildcats have the ceiling of a deep run. But if they can’t find an answer for Santa Clara’s Christian Hammond, BBN could be in for a long Friday in St. Louis.

Here's everything you need to know for the matchup.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Full TV schedule | Field of 68 projections | Printable bracket

Kentucky vs. Santa Clara odds

As expected, the Wildcats enter Friday's matchup as a slight favorite, according to DraftKings SportsBook.

• Odds: Kentucky -2.5
• Date: Friday, Mar. 20
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBD
• Arena: Enterprise Arena, St. Louis, Missouri

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Kentucky (21-13, 10-8 in SEC)

Kentucky entered this season thinking about a national championship. A rocky non-conference run quickly put those hopes on ice. Now, just getting past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament will require an upset.

The talent is undeniable, though three major transfer additions have missed considerable time. Jaland Lowe is out for the season, while Jayden Quaintance and Kam Williams haven’t been ruled out for the year but haven’t seen the court in some time and don’t have clear timelines.

Kentucky still has a core that can win at least one NCAA Tournament game, but that core has to produce – the depth is no longer there. Otega Oweh is one of the SEC’s top players and sets the tone on both ends of the floor, while Mouhamed Diabate and Malachi Moreno are both strong rebounders. The Wildcats have a dangerous shooter in Collin Chandler, though Florida transfer Denzel Aberdeen has not consistently stepped up as the No. 2 option behind Oweh. 

Whether Kentucky can excel in any area is a question heading into the tournament. The Wildcats’ defense has had some strong moments this season and holds opponents to respectable efficiency marks, but the defense took its lumps against tournament-level competition down the stretch, allowing more than 90 points against Texas A&M and Florida. 

Offensively, Kentucky is just a pedestrian 3-point shooting team, and Moreno hasn’t developed into enough of an offensive threat to consistently impose his will in the paint. 

The raw talent on the roster, even without some key supporting pieces, leaves the possibility of a run on the table for Kentucky. A first weekend exit, however, wasn’t the expectation coming into the season. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 28th
• KenPom ranking: 28th
• Quad 1 record: 5-11
• Quad 2 record: 7-2
• Quad 3 record: 3-0
• Quad 4 record: 6-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 39th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 27th

Key players

Otega Oweh, G, Sr. (6-5, 210): 18.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.6 apg

Denzel Aberdeen, G, Sr. (6-5, 189): 13.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.6 apg

Collin Chandler, G, So. (6-5, 202): 9.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 42.7% 3-pt

Mouhamed Dioubate, F, Jr. (6-7, 215): 8.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.9 bpg

Malachi Moreno, C, Fr. (7-0, 250): 8.0 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.6 bpg

DECOURCY: Why expanding the NCAA field is pointless

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 in WCC)

What a job Herb Sendek has done at Santa Clara, which is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996. The Broncos might have locked up a bid much sooner if not for a bad loss to Loyola Chicago on their resume, but this is a well-deserved moment for a program that produced legitimate NBA players in recent years.

The level of competition in the WCC might be a concern for some, but Santa Clara built an at-large resume in part because it didn’t just skate by inferior competition. The Broncos have 19 wins by double-digits, and the loss to Loyola Chicago is their only truly bad loss this season.

Santa Clara doesn’t shoot the lights out, coming in at just under 35 percent from deep, but most of the rotation is capable of shooting, allowing the team to shoot often and space the floor well. Christian Hammond is the focal point of the offense, but freshman Allen Graves is the x-factor after a promising season. The Broncos shoot nearly 57 percent on 2-point shots, a top-40 mark in the nation, and they are a terrific offensive rebounding team. 

Santa Clara averages better than nine steals per game, leading the WCC. The Broncos’ perimeter defense is solid but doesn’t jump off the page, and their interior defense is a bit softer, with teams shooting close to 53 percent on 2-point shots. 

With an array of capable shooters and the ability to give themselves extra opportunities through steals and offensive rebounds, Santa Clara could be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament. Like any program that hasn’t been to the big dance in three decades, however, they will be a bit of an unknown product until the moment arrives. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 40th
• KenPom ranking: 35th
• Quad 1 record: 2-6
• Quad 2 record: 6-1
• Quad 3 record: 10-0
• Quad 4 record: 7-1
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 23rd
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 81st

Key players

Christian Hammond, G, Jr. (6-4, 180): 15.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg

Elijah Mahi, F, Sr. (6-7, 220): 13.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.6 apg

Allen Graves, F, Fr. (6-9, 220): 11.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 apg

Aleksandar Gavalyugov, G, So. (6-0, 175): 8.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.6 apg

Jake Ensminger, G, Jr. (6-9, 205): 6.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.9 apg

Kentucky vs. Santa Clara prediction

Mark Pope has the Wildcats trending in the right direction at exactly the right time, looking to prove that his offensive system is built for a deep March run.

In year two of the program, Pope and the Wildcats are looking to capitalize on the momentum of last season's Sweet 16 run. Despite a streaky conference slate that saw them finish ninth in the SEC, Kentucky enters March Madness as a battle-tested unit that has played its way back into form, winning two of three in Nashville to cross the 20-win mark. They are a nightmare to scout because they play at a breakneck pace and have a frontline anchor in freshman Malachi Moreno, who can pass just as well as he protects the rim. When veteran guards Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen are taking care of the ball and hitting from the perimeter, Kentucky looks like a team that belongs in the second weekend once again.

On the other side, Herb Sendek has a Santa Clara team that is built to win through precision. They aren't going to be intimidated by the stage, having navigated a WCC that required them to play disciplined, high-IQ basketball every night. Christian Hammond has transformed into a legitimate star, and his ability to score from all three levels is the ultimate equalizer for the Broncos. If Santa Clara can slow this game down and force Kentucky into a half-court battle, they can negate the Wildcats' speed and force them to play a style that requires elite execution on every possession. The size in the Broncos' frontcourt creates a unique challenge, especially if they can limit Kentucky's second-chance opportunities.

The pick: Kentucky 84, Santa Clara 74. Santa Clara’s offensive efficiency is scary, but Kentucky’s high-octane system and the experience of last year's deep run should prevail. Moreno is an elite interior presence whose ability to facilitate out of the post will help the Wildcats bypass the Broncos' defensive pressure. 

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 7 vs. 10 matchups in NCAA Tournament

No. 7 seeds hold a 96-64 advantage over No. 10 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Based on those figures, the No. 7 seed has a 60.0% win rate in its first-round matchups over the past four decades.

No. 10 seeds have notched wins against No. 7 seeds in every single tournament since 2008, when Stephen Curry and Davidson downed Gonzaga en route to a glimmering Elite Eight run. In 2025, the trend continued with two double-digit seeds pulling off opening-round victories. Arkansas knocked off Kansas in a 79-72 thriller, and New Mexico handled Marquette with a 75-66 win.

Below is a breakdown of the wins 10-seeds have enjoyed over 7-seeds since 2009:

Dan Treacy contributed to this article.