Jonathan Kuminga contract prediction: What he's worth, where he could go, and possible sign-and-trades

Jonathan Kuminga's looming free agency has been a storyline for the Warriors over the past year. Now, it's reaching its closing chapter. 

With the Warriors eliminated from the playoffs, they will shift their focus to the summer. They won't have cap space to spend on outside free agents, nor will they have a first-round pick in the 2025 draft. Their biggest issue to tackle will be what to do with Kuminga, who will be a restricted free agent. 

Prior to the second round of the playoffs, it looked like Kuminga and the Warriors were headed for a likely divorce. The talented former No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft had fallen out of Steve Kerr's rotation for a variety of reasons.  That changed following Stephen Curry's hamstring injury in Game 1, which led to the 22-year-old wing getting back into the rotation.

When he did, he showed flashes of offensive brilliance, but also demonstrating a lack of rebounding and a propensity to make the wrong play at the wrong time.

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Kuminga has never fit well with Stephen Curry and the Warriors' read-based offensive system. The problems only grew worse after adding Jimmy Butler, who occupies many of the same areas on the floor as Kuminga. The last straw may have come towards the end of the season, according to The Ringer's Logan Murdock.

Kuminga is a talented scorer, but he does not have high feel. That has showed up in his erratic passing and pre-determined forays to the basket. Murdock wrote for The Ringer that "during a late-season game against the Blazers, team sources say Kerr was incensed after several instances in which Kuminga looked off Curry to create his own offense." 

Kuminga does have value as a shot creator, which he showed after Curry's injury. He even carried the Warriors at times offensively against the Wolves. How much is that worth, and should the Warriors be willing to pay for him given his poor fit? 

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How much is Jonathan Kuminga worth? 

A year ago, Kuminga was seeking a maximum extension from the Warriors that would have paid him $224 million over five years, per The Stein Line's Jake Fischer. The Warriors weren't interested in going above $30 million annually per The Athletic's Anthony Slater.

That looks like a wise decision in retrospect. Kuminga's value has gone down after a rough year, and the odds of him getting that same $30 million offer from anyone this summer has dropped.

My salary model has Kuminga pegged at a starting salary of $21 million based on his Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM). He'll probably get a couple million more than that in the real world. 

Jonathan Kuminga landing spots

If Kuminga signs somewhere outright in free agency, there aren't a top of options for him. 

The Nets are the top threat to lure him away from the Warriors. They are the only team with significant cap space this summer, and they have long shown an interest in him per The Stein Line's Marc Stein. 

The Pistons could also potentially open up enough cap space to get Kuminga, but they would have a tough time bringing back free agents Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dennis Schroder if that were the case.

The Warriors thus have a clear edge in keeping Kuminga. The question is if they want to do so. He has more value to other teams than them. 

There is one win-win scenario for Kuminga and the Warriors. If he negotiates a sign-and-trade with an over-the-cap team, then his pool of suitors will expand beyond the Nets and Pistons. Golden State could negotiate some draft equity and get a useful player back in the deal, and Kuminga could get his money and a better opportunity. 

Jonathan Kuminga sign-and-trades

A sign-and-trade sounds great in theory. There is one issue, though. Kuminga is subject to a complicated cap rule known as base year compensation. Because he will be receiving a huge raise on last year's salary, the typical salary-matching rules don't apply to him. That makes trades very complicated to pull off. 

That's not to say a sign-and-trade will be impossible. But the Warriors can only receive back a player who makes a little over half of Kuminga's new salary. The mechanics are tricky enough that multiple teams would probably have to be roped in, and they would all be looking for some sort of asset in exchange for helping to facilitate the trade. 

What teams would want to sign-and-trade for Kuminga? The Bucks are in desperate need of young talent. He could be part of a multi-team trade involving Giannis Antetokounmpo (no, Giannis wouldn't be going to the Warriors in that construction). He could be a Jayson Tatum fill-in as Tatum recovers from his torn Achilles if the Celtics decide to offload one of their more expensive pieces, as is widely expected. The Pelicans could shop Zion Williamson. Kuminga could head to New Orleans as part of a larger swap. 

All of these deals would have Kuminga as a third or fourth part of a bigger trade. The Warriors' return wouldn't be that significant — a late first-round draft pick and useful rotation player is a reasonable expectation, based on what's happened in previous years.

Remember that it took a massive six-team deal to figure out Klay Thompson's sign-and-trade last summer. The Warriors got two second-round picks, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield back in that transaction. They could try to do something similar this summer with Kuminga.