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“The longer this lasts, the higher the probability goes that the pricing increases hold,” Kirby said.
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And once the rush of summer travel subsides, carriers will probably take another hard look at capacity and weed out more routes that have become unprofitable.
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Chicago-based United said it expects it can recapture as much as 100% of the higher fuel costs by the end of the year by increasing prices for customers.
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Delta Air Lines Inc. CEO Ed Bastian said in a recent earnings call that the company would look at the degree to which it could “retain any of the pricing strength” even after fuel costs come down.
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The saving grace for the moment is that bookings remain strong with peak summer travel season arriving — though cracks are showing. United said current demand is resilient, but that likely won’t hold as more expensive tickets discourage flying.
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Like American Airlines a few days later, the carrier slashed its full-year profit forecast.
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American CEO Robert Isom said demand remains robust for now and he expects double-digit revenue growth in the current quarter, even as the carrier trims marginal flying.
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Still, the company lowered its annual forecast and said it may end the year with a loss.
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That U-turn comes as American and Alaska Air pursue potential revenue-sharing agreements and other strategic partnerships, Bloomberg News reported.
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American also has been the subject of speculation about a potential merger with United. Kirby floated the idea during a February meeting with Trump, people familiar with the matter have said.
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American and the usually business-friendly president swatted back the idea, saying it would reduce competition. Days later, Trump threw airline bosses another curveball, saying he’s weighing a government purchase of Spirit rather than letting it go under.
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“The current administration doesn’t make long-term planning easy, and airline CEOs are being forced to think on their feet,” said Art Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
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That includes C-suites around the world. There have been signs that Asian countries are hoarding jet fuel, and the International Energy Agency warned that Europe may deplete its supplies in weeks.
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Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s largest airline group, is cutting about 20,000 flights from its summer schedule and adopting the pricing models of budget airlines by selling tickets that don’t include bags.
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As in every crisis, there’s always one person telling everyone to calm down. In aviation, that’s Emirates’ Clark, whose Dubai-based carrier has been devastated by the conflict.
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The world’s largest airline is operating at 65% of capacity after a near-total grounding as travelers avoid the Persian Gulf region. But once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it should only take one-to-two months for business to rebound, he said.
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“People have short memories,” Clark told a Berlin conference Thursday. Once the fighting stops and there’s a degree of stability, “things will be back to normal.”
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—With assistance from Leen Al-Rashdan.
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