Japan Open 2025: Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier

Date: September 24, 2025

Tournament: 2025 Japan Open

Round: First Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Outdoor hard

Prize Money: $2,226,470

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier preview

Denis Shapovalov at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Shapovalov comes into the Tokyo Open with a solid year overall and has claimed two titles in 2025. He won in Dallas (ATP 500) earlier in the year by defeating Casper Ruud and followed that with a dominant, no-sets-dropped run in Los Cabos. He is familiar with lifting trophies and handling pressure when things are on the line.

Altmaier, by contrast, has had a much tougher season. He holds a 16-22 record to date, with many early losses, especially in the latter half of 2025. He has yet to capture a tour-level title, and his match results show patches of good tennis but no consistent breakouts.

Shapovalov’s ability to win tough matches and his strong results make him the slight favourite. Altmaier has the fighting spirit, but unless he turns up at peak levels, the advantage likely goes to the Canadian.

Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier head-to-head

Shapovalov and Altmaier have met just once before on the ATP Tour, with the Canadian leading their head-to-head 1–0. Their only clash came at Wimbledon last year, where Shapovalov edged out Altmaier in a tight five-set battle, winning 7-6(3), 6-3, 1-6, 6-7(3), 6-4 in the opening round

Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier odds

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

Denis Shapovalov vs Daniel Altmaier prediction

Daniel Altmaier at the 2025 US Open - Source: Getty

Both Shapovalov and Altmaier are making their first appearance since the US Open, having rested for over two weeks. So, freshness won’t be an issue. Shapovalov fell to Jannik Sinner in the third round, while Altmaier also exited at the same stage after retiring against Alex de Minaur.

Shapovalov brings more momentum into this clash. He enters not just rested, but also having started a new chapter in his personal life, playing as a newly married man. He has an edge in experience and the ability to shift gears in big matches.

Altmaier may grab a set or push Shapo in parts, but Shapovalov’s superior shot-making makes him the pick to steam through in a tight three-set win.

Pick: Shapovalov to win in three sets

Edited by Aliasgar Ayaz