Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and betting tips | ATP Finals 2025

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Jannik Sinner vs (7) Alex de Minaur

Date: November 15, 2025

Tournament: ATP Finals

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy

Category: Year-end championships

Surface: Hard (Indoor)

Prize Money: $15,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur preview

Jannik Sinner at the ATP Finals 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Defending champion Jannik Sinner will take on seventh seed Alex de Minaur in the semifinals of the ATP Finals 2025.

Sinner kicked off his title defense with a 7-5, 6-1 win over eighth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. Up against third seed Alexander Zverev in his next group tie, he beat the German 6-4, 6-3 to assure himself of a semifinal spot. He will face fifth seed Ben Shelton in his final match of the group stage.

Sinner's match against Shelton on Friday (November 14) is effectively a dead runner. The former will top his group regardless of the outcome, while the latter will not make it out of the group stage even with a win.

De Minaur went down 7-6 (5), 6-2 against top seed Carlos Alcaraz in his first group match. He was on the verge of victory against ninth seed Lorenzo Musetti. However, he lost the match 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 despite serving for it at 5-3 in the deciding set.

However, de Minaur wasn't eliminated despite losing both of his initial group ties. He was up against sixth seed Taylor Fritz in a must-win match for both players. Both players traded service breaks to begin the opening set, after which they remained steady on serve.

A tie-break thus came into the picture, in which de Minaur gained the upper hand to put himself in the driver's seat. He broke Fritz's serve just once in the second set, and that was more than enough for him to register a 7-6 (3), 6-3 win.

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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur head-to-head

Sinner leads their rivalry 12-0. He won their most recent meeting at the Erste Bank Open 2025 in Vienna in straight sets.

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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur odds

(Odds will be added once they're available)

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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur prediction

Alex de Minaur at the ATP Finals 2025. (Photo: Getty)

De Minaur defied the odds to reach the semifinals of the ATP Finals for the first time. His win over Fritz also marked his maiden career victory at the year-end championships. The Aussie won 83 percent of points behind his first serve and struck 24 winners compared to 28 unforced errors.

Since Alcaraz went 3-0 during the group stage, Sinner has no chance of taking over the No. 1 ranking from him. However, this means his focus will now exclusively be on his title defense. He hasn't dropped his serve even once this week, though Shelton could end that streak, and saved all seven break points that he faced against Zverev.

Given their lopsided rivalry, Sinner will be the firm favorite to win this contest. De Minaur has won a set only twice across their previous 12 meetings. The latter's defensive tactics haven't held up against Sinner's precise shotmaking. A different outcome is hard to foresee given the Italian's form, having won his previous two tournaments as well.

Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in straight sets.

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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur betting tips

Tip 1: Jannik Sinner to win.

Tip 2: The match will have at least 18 games.

Edited by Rohit