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Italy first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (9) watches after hitting a home run against Mexico in the sixth inning of a World Baseball Classic game, Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Houston.
AP
Italy is writing quite the Cinderella Story at the World Baseball Classic.
Not only did the Azzurri stun the Americans on Tuesday, but they followed that up with a 9-1 drubbing of Mexico in a do-or-die game Wednesday.
The Italians now head into the quarterfinals as winners of Pool B, earning themselves a matchup with Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals at Daikin Park in Houston on Saturday.
Puerto Rico is the slightest of favorites to advance, but oddsmakers are essentially telling you to flip a coin for this tilt.
Italy vs. Puerto Rico odds, prediction
Italy’s triumph in Pool B was equal parts magic, shrewd strategy and downright impressive baseball.
There’s no denying that The Azzurri have some serious vibes going, but they also mapped out the path to the knockout stage perfectly.
Edwin Diaz of Team Puerto Rico in action at the World Baseball Classic. Getty ImagesManager Francisco Cervelli saved his two best pitchers, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola, for pivotal games against Team USA and Mexico, while trusting that his offense could propel them to victory over lowly Brazil and Great Britain.
Just getting to this point is an accomplishment for the Italians, but they will now need to find a way to patch together their pitching against Puerto Rico since Lorenzen and Nola are not available.
That will put pressure on the Italian offense to provide some breathing room.
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And even though they’ll have a tough assignment against either Seth Lugo or Yankees prospect Elmer Rodriguez, the Azzurri’s bats have passed every test put before them in this tournament.
They chased Nolan McLean and Javier Assad in their last two games, scoring 17 runs against the two best teams in Pool B.
Puerto Rico’s bats should have equal success against Italy’s arms, which should set us up well for a bet on the Over TK runs Saturday.
The Play: Over 8.5 runs (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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