.jpg)
1 hour ago
3
Article content
On the growth front, what economists see right now is a slowdown capping Trump’s rollercoaster first year. US gross domestic product shrank at the outset — thanks to a monumental import surge, as firms and consumers rushed to get ahead of tariffs — and then rebounded fast for a while.
Article content
What the White House sees is a “gradual transition” underway between the Biden and Trump economies, according to Pierre Yared, acting chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Article content
“The policies of the president are bearing fruit,” Yared said in a telephone interview. He pointed to three main metrics — overall growth, well-paying jobs, and building secure supply chains in America — as well as US outperformance over peers like the European Union.
Article content
The shutdown has delayed the release of September jobs data and other economic numbers. Alternative sources indicate anemic hiring. Unemployment is low but rising. Companies including Amazon.com Inc. and Target Corp. are laying off workers. One report shows US firms announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades.
Article content
Manufacturing in particular, where Trump promised a tariff-led renaissance, has struggled. It’s been in contraction for eight straight months and shed 42,000 jobs since April – the longest losing streak since the pandemic — after the president unveiled his global tariffs.
Article content
Article content
Yared said what matters is the quality of jobs, and he pointed to a pickup in manufacturing productivity this year, as well as higher inflation-adjusted weekly pay in factories, mining and construction – all priority areas for the administration.
Article content
In industries such as manufacturing, construction, agriculture and hospitality, the pool of available labor has shrunk in part because of Trump’s immigration crackdown. After a wave of raids and deportations, monthly border crossings — which surged under Biden — have plummeted close to zero.
Article content
That’s left some employers struggling to find workers, though it also means fewer new jobs are required to keep unemployment steady. Still, the conservative American Enterprise Institute estimates that Trump’s policy shift will trim growth by as much as 0.4 percentage point this year.
Article content
Surveys show Americans are worried about the job market — and the economy overall. RealClearPolitics polling averages for Trump’s approval ratings on the topic have declined sharply since he returned to office in January. Consumer sentiment this month plunged close to the lowest on record.
Article content
Article content
Tariff Whipsaw
Article content
Trade has been at the top of Trump’s second-term agenda. The president has followed through on campaign promises to hike import taxes, with the goals of revitalizing manufacturing, erasing deficits with US trading partners, and raising government revenue.
Article content
The latter is happening: with US tariffs now their highest in roughly a century, the Treasury Department is collecting around $30 billion a month. Trump also touts the investments in the US that companies and trade partners have pledged as a result of his dealmaking.
Article content
But his on-and-off approach to imposing the duties – illustrated again last month when he dialed back charges on Chinese imports – has caused tremendous uncertainty, with many businesses halting investment and hiring decisions until they see where rates settle.
Article content
The Supreme Court may yet have a say in that. At a hearing last week, justices appeared skeptical that Trump had the constitutional authority to impose his country-based tariffs, and a ruling could come by year’s end. Most economists expect the trade war will drag on growth next year, though the hit to consumer prices hasn’t been as big as anticipated.
English (US)