It’s a Different, More Confident Zelenskyy Coming to NATO This Year

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There’s no visible sign that Putin’s willing to end the war despite growing disruption to the lives of millions of Russians from Ukrainian attacks that have undercut Kremlin efforts to insulate the population and avoid social tensions. Russians’ anger over fuel shortages follows discontent over widespread mobile internet outages the Kremlin imposed on security grounds. 

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“It’s having absolutely no effect on Putin,” while the attacks are prompting many Russians to adopt a siege mentality and rally behind the authorities, said Andrey Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based political analyst. “Nevertheless, fatigue is increasing which can turn into irritation,” he said.

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Zelenskyy and Trump are expected to hold talks at the summit in Ankara on Wednesday. They also spoke by phone on Saturday. 

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In a potential sign of his greater confidence in Ukraine’s position, Zelenskyy is holding off on signing a cooperation deal with the US on drone production, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

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Ukrainian officials say the president may be seeking better terms from the US and for senior US officials to recognise the deal’s value. They privately confirmed in May that the US is seeking to gain access to Ukraine’s proprietary technology as part of the accord. 

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Zelenskiy’s spokesman Dmytro Lytvyn has denied in a response to Bloomberg News that the president was stalling on the drone deal.

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Trump’s view of Ukraine may also have mellowed since he told Zelenskyy “you don’t have the cards” during their spectacular White House bust-up last year. He told reporters last month that Zelenskyy’s “doing pretty well” against Russia.

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Even so, some European allies are cautious even as they acknowledge that Ukraine’s expertise in drone production and warfare has given Zelenskyy a stronger hand in negotiations. 

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While the expectations now are for a good meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, the US president’s volatility means there’s no certainty the talks will go well, according to two people familiar with the situation.

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European officials don’t expect Trump to substantively increase pressure on Russia either through new sanctions or resuming weapons aid to Ukraine.

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Putin has acknowledged public anger over the fuel shortages in many areas of Russia. While the Kremlin insisted the situation is under control the president’s popularity has taken a hit in opinion polls.

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Putin’s trust rating among Russians fell by 3.4 percentage points on the previous week, to 73.3%, in a July 3 survey by VTsIOM, the biggest decline the state-run pollster has recorded since the start of the war in Ukraine.

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The president’s approval rating fell five percentage points to 74% in a June poll by the independent Moscow-based Levada Center, the lowest since February 2022. The proportion of Russians believing the country was heading in the right direction slumped to 52% from 61%, also the lowest since the war began.

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“Russians are very much concerned and aware of these disruptions,” said Ella Paneyakh, a research fellow at the London-based New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank. “At the same time, fuel shortages do not affect the same segments of the population that suffer most from mobile network outages — meaning that a new group of dissatisfied people is emerging.”

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To support domestic fuel supplies and keep a lid on retail prices, the Russian government paid over $2.7 billion in June alone in subsidies to refiners, further raising pressure on the nation’s strained wartime budget.