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The Israeli military has taken out more than 60% of Iran’s rocket launchers in the first three weeks of the war, with at least another three weeks of fighting expected.
Between 260 and 290 of an estimated 410 to 440 Iranian launchers have been “destroyed or rendered combat ineffective” since the start of the joint US-Israel military operation, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which cited a senior Israeli military official.
The effectiveness of the campaign has left Iran’s missile force troops “demoralized, deserting, and refusing orders,” the think tank noted, citing Israeli intelligence.
On Feb. 28 – the first day of combat operations – Iran launched some 182 ballistic missiles at the Gulf States, whereas only 9 ballistic missile launches were recorded on Sunday.
“There is little to no evidence that Iran is holding missiles or drones in reserve to expend after the US and its allies run out of interceptors,” ISW assessed.
“Hoarding missiles in reserve will do Iran no good if it cannot launch them or if they get shot down before they reach their targets,” the institute argued, finding that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “almost certainly lacks the command-and-control necessary to execute a centrally-directed operation that prioritizes certain munitions over others, even if it wanted to.”
US and Israeli forces have also targeted Iran’s drone launchers, but neither side has released figures for the number of drone targets hit. Like ballistic missile launches, drone attacks have also trended downward – with the Gulf States reporting 18 drone launches on Sunday compared to more than 200 on the first day of the war.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth revealed last week that Iran’s missile volume is “down 90%” from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury and that its one-way suicide drone attacks have decreased by 95%.
A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces told CNN on Sunday that the military was planning for at least three more weeks of combat operations against Iran — with “deeper plans” for an additional three weeks beyond that, if needed
“We have thousands of targets ahead,” Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told the outlet. “We are ready, in coordination with our US allies, with plans through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now [ending at sundown April 9]. And we have deeper plans for even three weeks beyond that.”
Defrin’s timeframe extends the war beyond the initial “four weeks or so” estimation President Trump put forward on March 1.
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