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The Islanders are 1-1-1 in their last three games.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Devils are off and running this season.
New Jersey is 11-4-0 through 15 games, giving the Devils one of the best records in the entire NHL through the first month of the season.
The Devils are also the only unbeaten team at home this season, going a perfect 7-0-0 at The Rock to start the campaign.
The Islanders will look to send Devils fans home unhappy for the first time this season on Monday night.
Islanders vs. Devils odds, prediction
It’s hard to be critical of a team that has won 11 of its first 15 games, but some numbers imply that New Jersey isn’t as good as its record would suggest.
When the Devils were at their best last season, they were dominating teams at 5-on-5, using their speed and skill to tilt the ice from start to finish. New Jersey was relentless, suffocating, and fast.
This hot start has not looked like that. The Devils own a minus-5 goal difference at 5-on-5, which is one of the worst marks in the NHL. That is a bizarre stat for a team with one of the best records in the NHL. What’s even more concerning is that the underlying numbers back it up.
New Jersey ranks 28th in expected goals percentage and 24th in high-danger scoring chance rate at 5-on-5 through 15 games.
All of this screams regression. And not the good kind.
The Islanders are no juggernauts at 5-on-5, but they have shown some scoring chops this season, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils. NHLI via Getty ImagesBetting on the NHL?
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The Isles have some serious issues defensively, but goaltender Ilya Sorokin has rounded into form of late, helping the team paper over some of the cracks. And unlike recent iterations of the Islanders, this version can score its way out of trouble with a deep group of forwards.
The Isles currently have nine different players with at least 10 points, and Bo Horvat is among the league leaders with 11 goals in 15 contests.
The Devils are right to be favored on Monday night, but their statistical profile tells us that they’re going to be overvalued for the foreseeable future.
The Play: Islanders (+146, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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