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Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader has effectively taken control of Tehran’s military and negotiation team over the weekend, analysts said.
IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have allegedly taken charge of the Islamic republic, as evident by Iran’s attacks on ships trying to sail through the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s refusal to join peace talks with the US this week, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said.
The sudden shift to a hardline stance also shows that more moderate members of Iran’s leadership, including Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, have been sidelined.
Araghchi had initially agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after reaching a consensus with the Trump administration, but the IRGC demanded it remain shut in the face of the American blockade on Iranian ports.
Vahidi reportedly received the backing of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary and an IRGC veteran, to control the strait — further cementing Vahidi’s grip on Iran.
The IRCG’s fast attack ships remain Iran’s main form of naval force in the key waterway after US-Israeli airstrikes sunk more than 150 vessels of Tehran’s conventional navy during the war.
Iran had attacked at least three ships trying to get through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, signaling that the oil chokepoint remains closed off as hundreds of ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Vahidi and Zolghadr’s alliance goes beyond the military blockade, with the IRGC commander tapping his ally to join the Iranian delegation earlier this month.
Zolghadr was specifically sent to make sure the delegation was following the IRGC’s command and that of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who ascended to replace his father at the pushing of the Islamic Guard.
“Zolghadr sent a complaint to senior IRGC leaders, almost certainly including Vahidi, that Araghchi had surpassed his mandate during the negotiations by expressing flexibility regarding Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance,” the ISW said of the initial peace talks.
“Zolghadr’s anger caused senior leaders in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief and long-time member of Mojtaba’s inner circle, Hossein Taeb, to call the negotiating delegation back to Tehran,” the think tank added.
Vahidi’s alliance has ultimately made him the top decision-maker in Iran apart from Khamenei, who has yet to make a public appearance since he was injured during the initial US-Israeli airstrikes that killed his father and other top officials.
This puts Vahidi and the IRGC above Araghchi and Iranian Parliament leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who, despite their anti-American rhetoric, are considered moderates.
The state of affairs undermines Araghchi and Ghalibaf’s negotiations with the US as they lack “leverage or formal executive authority to shape decision-making,” the ISW notes.
It also undermines statements from the Trump administration that the US was dealing with a reformed regime after killing dozens of top Iranian officials during the war.
With no date set for US-Iranian negotiations to continue, it remains to be seen if the fragile cease-fire will be extended past the deadline set for Tuesday.
English (US)