Iran Switches to Survival Mode After Killing of Khamenei

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This approach was recently loosened when a sudden surge of patriotism in response to Israel’s June strikes briefly strengthened the regime. It’s unlikely Iran’s leaders can draw on that capital now after the brutal crackdown in January. 

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Although Khamenei’s death may have been welcomed by many people in Tehran, Tel Aviv and Washington, it’s far from clear that Iranians have any appetite to follow Trump’s wishes to take over the state at a time when the country’s vast armed forces and paramilitaries are actively at war. 

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His death has also divided international opinion, particularly other powerful leaders who are isolated by the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin, a leader Trump admires and seeks to appease, said on Sunday that Khamenei “will be remembered as an outstanding statesman.” China condemned the assassination as “unacceptable.”

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The vacancy at the top of Iran’s leadership structure also raises questions about whether the country’s nuclear policy will change. A report by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency published before Saturday’s attack concluded that “regular activity” had been observed at key Iranian nuclear sites that Trump had bombed last June and later claimed had been “obliterated”.

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Khamenei issued a religious edict, or fatwa, against weaponizing its nuclear program two decades ago. Along with being a signatory to the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which also prohibits Iran from building warheads, Tehran’s diplomats argued, unsuccessfully, that the two pledges together represented an ironclad guarantee that the country would not develop nuclear weapons. 

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With Khamenei’s demise, voices that have sought greater flexibility in Iran’s pursuit of deterrence may gain new strength. In April 2025, Larijani, for instance, said Iran could change its nuclear doctrine if forced to defend itself. 

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The Islamic Republic has already, for several decades, withstood one of the toughest economic sanctions regimes in history, the longest land war of the 20th century against Iraq, and nearly 50 years of isolation from the West.

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Khamenei, by his own admission, wasn’t the most qualified person to take on the post of Valayat-e Faqih — or guardianship of the Islamic jurist — a leadership doctrine in Shia Islam that says highly qualified religious scholars should rule over a state. 

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“Based on the constitution, I am not qualified for the job, and from a religious point of view, many of you will not accept my words as those of a leader,” he said when he was selected to succeed the Islamic Republic’s first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in June 1989. “What sort of leadership will this be?” He was trying to project a sense of pious humility in the face of criticism of his religious credentials. 

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But the leadership question is one many Iranians have asked for nearly four decades. It now has a renewed urgency.

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Countless times, Khamenei refused to listen to calls from Iran’s urban middle classes to make space for reform. On the few occasions that the country’s economy grew, when its biggest trade partner was the European Union, its elected government was in the hands of reformists or moderates, a political faction that Khamenei marginalized and effectively rendered obsolete.

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“Despite the very vocal criticisms directed at Khamenei, and calls by reformist and activist figures for him to step down, the political clan and more importantly security apparatus has continued to back him,” Geranmayeh said. “In part, the more existential the threats have become, the more the political elite have glued together to save the entire ship from sinking.”