Iran Shuts Out Nuclear Monitors in Tactics That Recall Cold War

094ruyf{[6[q0{vxg]e[ucs2_media_dl_1.png IAEA data compiled by Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Iran is keeping its nuclear ambitions more closely guarded than ever after last month’s attacks by Israel and the US, introducing additional ambiguity to the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic showdown with Washington. 

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After formally cutting off International Atomic Energy Agency inspections last week, Iranian nuclear-safety regulators have stopped taking calls from the United Nations watchdog, according to two officials who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. The IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre was activated June 13 and had been in continuous contact with counterparts in Iran, but that information sharing has tailed off, they said. 

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The communication blackout underscores the degree to which Iran is using silence as a way to obscure international understanding over the status of its nuclear program. Tehran had previously allowed an average of more than one IAEA inspection a day and took part in five rounds of talks with the US about a deal to curb its atomic activities, but the Israeli assault has changed the equation. 

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US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said Iran’s nuclear facilities have been “obliterated” by 12 days of airstrikes, which — if true — would render the conversation moot. Yet the view of the IAEA is that, while sites at Natanz and Fordow have suffered some damage, uranium-enrichment activity could resume in a “matter of months,” Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told CBS News over the weekend. 

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The whereabouts of Iran’s 409-kilogram (902 pound) inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium is also unknown. Given the fuel can be stored in 16 cylinders each the size of a large scuba-diving tank, there’s at least a possibility it’s been transported to an undeclared location.  

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With no near-term resumption of IAEA monitoring in prospect, policymakers on both sides of the conflict are reacquainting themselves with so-called strategic ambiguity — a key element to nuclear brinkmanship during the Cold War. By introducing a level of uncertainty about their intentions, goes the theory developed by Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling among others, adversaries may be able to prevent a slide into total war. 

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“It remains to be seen if Iran dashes for a bomb or not, but what is clear is that the US strikes will drive the program further underground,” said Dina Esfandiary, who covers the Middle East for Bloomberg Economics. “Iran is learning that strategic ambiguity will be its best option.”

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Next Phase

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The situation raises questions about the next phase of the US and Israeli mission to curb Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon, an aim the Islamic Republic has repeatedly denied. 

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Trump offered an olive branch to Iran on Sunday, suggesting in an interview with Fox News he could offer the country relief from stringent economic sanctions in return for assurances of peace. 

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That jarred — at least in tone — with comments posted by Trump on Truth Social two days earlier, where he responded furiously to claims of victory by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and said he had “dropped all work on sanction relief” as a result. 

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Iran’s government, meanwhile, said it remains skeptical its US-brokered ceasefire with Israel will last, adding it would respond to any new attacks. Regarding the prospect of fresh talks with the US, a government spokeswoman said Tuesday that “no decision has been made.”