Iowa State vs. Tennessee State prediction: March Madness 2026 odds, picks, best bet for Friday’s Round of 64

Iowa State is one of the best teams in the country, but the Cyclones seem to be flying under the radar a little bit as we hit the Big Dance.

If not for a last-second loss to Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals, T. J. Otzelberger’s team could have been a No. 1 seed in this field.

Alas, the boys from Ames will need to settle for a No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region.

Iowa State vs. Tennessee State odds, prediction

The Cyclones will open the tournament as a massive favorite against No. 15-seed Tennessee State.

FanDuel has Iowa State laying 24.5 points, with the juice suggesting this number could rise before tip-off Friday.

When you’re handicapping the mismatches in the NCAA Tournament, you’re looking at what skillset the underdog brings to the table and if those strengths can cause a problem for the chalk.

Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger. AP

And while Tennessee State doesn’t have a specific strength that should feasibly threaten Iowa State, it does have one particular feature that could gum up the works a little bit.

The Tigers are a fast-moving bunch, ranking 36th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.

That won’t mean much if Tennessee State can’t score against the fourth-best defense in the country, but it could at least throw a wrench into the system as Iowa State adjusts to the style of play in front of them.

While the Tigers want to go, Iowa State plays at a much slower rate.

KenPom has them at 225th in terms of tempo, and the Cyclones rank 221st in total possessions per game this season.

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The disparity in styles has every chance of creating a herky-jerky rhythm for this contest, especially in the early going, as these two teams are getting used to one another.

Iowa State likely pulls away and makes this a laugher by the final whistle, but it could look a little nervy in the first half.

The Play: Tennessee State 1H spread (+13.5, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.