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The largest and most geographically diverse papal conclave in history is set to commence May 7 in Rome, where cardinals will begin the secretive voting process to select the next man who will lead the Roman Catholic church.
At least 133 cardinals will be casting their ballots starting at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday in the Sistine Chapel, where the chimney that will carry white smoke announcing to the world that a new pope has been chosen has already been installed.
A two-thirds majority vote for a new pope is required before a successor to Pope Francis can be named. Francis, 88, died of a stroke and heart failure April 21.
While it’s uncertain how many days the cloak-and-dagger voting process will last, it won’t be too long if recent history is any indicator — the past 10 conclaves averaged just 3.2 days, with none taking more than five.
Salvadoran Cardinal Gregorio Rosa Chavez predicted this week that the conclave to elect the 267th pope will last a “maximum [of] three days.”
What happens during the conclave?
On May 7, the cardinals will meet inside the historic chapel to vote between 4:30 and 7:30 p.m. in near total silence. No discussion or politicking is held within the Sistine Chapel, only outside after the day’s voting has concluded.
To help maintain secrecy, the chapel is swept for electronic bugging devices daily before voting commences. Some cardinals ensure their choice remains secretive by obscuring their handwriting before folding up their paper ballot to just an inch wide. Ballots are then placed in a lidded bronze and silver urn and mixed up before being tallied one by one.
Everyone at the Vatican — from cooks to translators to elevator operators — took an oath of secrecy Monday to prepare for the conclave, under threat of automatic excommunication if they squawk about any of the process.
If a new pope isn’t chosen the first day, on day two, the cardinals meet for a Mass at 8:15 a.m. in the Pauline Chapel, or Papal Chapel, followed by a mid-morning prayer at 9:30 a.m. before returning to the Sistine Chapel.
If no winner emerges after that, they take a break at 12:30 p.m. and return to vote again starting at 4:50 p.m. until about 7:30 p.m.
White smoke or black?
After each vote, if no candidate for pope reaches the two-thirds majority threshold, the ballots are burned with a chemical agent that produces black smoke, which wafts up through the Sistine Chapel chimney to signal no choice has been made.
When a new pope is chosen, ballots, emblazoned with the Latin words “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” — meaning “I choose as Supreme Pontiff,” are burned with a different additive that creates white smoke.
If the cardinals fail to reach a consensus after three days, electors can stop the voting for no more than one day for additional discussion and prayer.
Who will be the next pope?
The big question on everybody’s minds is who will be chosen as the successor to Pope Francis, and speculation is rampant — including with the betting markets, where people are already laying down cash on their predictions.
Vatican Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian who oversees the conclave, has emerged as the 15-8 favorite to become the next pontiff — slightly better than 2-to-1 odds — according to the latest report by OLBG.
Another cardinal considered a leading contender to assume the miter is Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, often called the “Asian Francis” for his liberal leanings. If elected, he would be the first Asian pope. OLBG places him as the second most likely next pope, with 5-2 odds.
Other names in the mix include Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, archbishop of Kinshasa, capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo; Bishop Anders Arborelius, 75, of Stockholm, who is Sweden’s first-ever Catholic cardinal, and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, from Marseille, France.
An international affair
Pope Francis made history as the first-ever pontiff from the Americas, and the cardinals voting to name his successor hail from 71 countries, making it the most geographically diverse conclave in history.
The countries with the most electors are: Italy (17), United States (10), Brazil (7), France and Spain (5), Argentina, Canada, India, Poland and Portugal (4).
By continent, the elector breakdown is as follows:
Europe (53, though one cardinal from Spain said he is not participating because of health issues, so the final number may in fact be 52).
Asia (52, including the Middle East).
Africa (18, another elector skipping the conclave because of health issues is from Kenya, so the number of Africans will likely be 17).
South America (17), North America (16, 10 American, 4 Canadian, 2 Mexican); Central America (4).
Oceania (4, one each from Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Tonga).
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