India Made Long Push With Trump Behind Scenes to Clinch US Deal

Article content

On Monday, officials in New Delhi were taken by surprise when Trump posted about the deal on social media. Many senior bureaucrats in the foreign and commerce ministries, even those who had been directly involved in the trade negotiations, were oblivious that a call had been scheduled between the leaders that day. Some were unable to confirm key details related to the tariff announcement when contacted by reporters late in the day.

Article content

Behind the scenes, though, New Delhi had been working to get relations gradually back on track. Doval’s meeting with Rubio in September was a signal to Washington that it sees the US as a long-term strategic partner and couldn’t afford to allow ties to deteriorate further.

Article content

The prevailing view in New Delhi was that India needed US capital, technology and military cooperation to deter China and meet Modi’s goals of making the South Asian nation a developed economy by 2047. Trump was just a blip over that time frame, officials in New Delhi said, and India needs to stay focused on doing what’s best over the long term.

Article content

“New Delhi was never going to sever relations with Washington following last year’s downturn in bilateral relations,” said Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House. “India-US relations remain ‘sticky’ given the plethora of institutionalized and people-to-people linkages between both countries.”

Article content

Article content

“That being said,” he added, “the irrational exuberance that marked New Delhi’s earlier assessments of the bilateral relationship have faded.”

Article content

Relations had spiraled downward ever since Trump claimed credit in May for resolving a four-day clash between India and neighboring Pakistan, a boast that Modi vehemently rejected. In a tense call between the two leaders in June, Modi declined Trump’s request to come to the White House, where the US president was hosting Pakistan’s army chief at the time. In October, Modi skipped a summit in Malaysia to avoid a possibly awkward meeting with Trump.

Article content

The arrival of new US Ambassador Sergio Gor to New Delhi in December appeared to kick off more serious efforts to get relations back on an even keel. Gor, a former senior White House official and longtime member of Trump’s inner circle who is also close to Rubio, has repeatedly underscored the importance of US-India ties. In his first public speech in his new role, Gor cast the tensions between the two countries as disagreements among “real friends,” which he said both sides were sure to resolve. He also announced India would be invited to join a US-led alliance, called Pax Silica, to strengthen supply chains.

Article content

Article content

A further thaw in ties was evident during a meeting between Gor and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar last week, according to people familiar with the matter. Gor said in a social-media post that the two sides discussed “everything from defense, trade, critical minerals, and working toward our common interests,” adding: “Stay tuned for much more!” 

Article content

“This appears to conclude a difficult six-month period for US-India relations,” said Alexander Slater, former head of the US-India Business Council. “It also adds to recent signals about where India’s economic future is likely headed” and “removes a key impediment to what had been India’s gradual but steady alignment with the West.” 

Article content

Despite the rapprochement, India has reason to proceed cautiously with Trump, and is keen to assert its strategic autonomy. Modi’s viral moment with Xi and Putin, clasping hands and chuckling together, was meant to show Trump that it has other options, officials in New Delhi said. Modi rolled out the red carpet for Putin in December, showcasing ties with a country that remains an important source of weapons and diplomatic support dating back to the Cold War.