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(Bloomberg) — The global market could absorb a record wave of new supply of liquefied natural gas, but much depends on net zero policies and renewables growth, the International Energy Agency said.
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The IEA said it revised up overall gas demand in its World Energy Outlook published Wednesday, but “questions still linger about where all the new LNG will go.”
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Global LNG capacity is set to rise by about 50% by the end of the decade — the biggest build-out in the industry’s history — with suppliers and market watchers trying to gauge how deep and how long an anticipated glut could last, weighing on prices.
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The IEA details several scenarios in its outlook, assuming different paces of energy transition and climate goals. The most bullish for gas demand — the so-called “current policies scenario” — sees global LNG appetite rising in line with supply until the end of the decade and even slightly exceeding already planned export capacities by 2035.
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However, the “stated policies scenario” sees stronger renewables growth, resulting in LNG oversupply in 2030, gradually disappearing only by 2035.
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This period of LNG surplus creates risks for companies investing in new projects, with the US — the most flexible supplier that will add most of the capacities — having the greatest exposure, according to the report. Elsewhere, older plants with relatively high operating costs may not be competitive.
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China is another “wild card” for the market, given its deepening energy ties with a major pipeline gas supplier, Russia, and uncertainty on the country’s LNG demand, the IEA said.
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