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1 hour ago
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There are over 100 players statistically more likely than Bam Adebayo to score 83 points... sort of. I'll explain why shortly and list all of them.
In a performance absolutely nobody saw coming, Bam Adebayo scored 83 points, the second-most in NBA history. Count me as someone not locked in to Heat-Wizards on a random Tuesday in March until my group chat lit up with a slightly more colorful version of "oh my, Bam has 62 at the end of the 3rd quarter!"
Adebayo, who entered Tuesday averaging 18.9 points and 4.8 free throws per game, passed Bryant on the single-game list thanks mostly to a yawn-inducing 36-43 display from the charity stripe. Not a typo. 36 made free throws. 43 free throw attempts. Both setting all-time single-game records.
MORE: Comparing Bam's 83 to Kobe's 81 | Inside Bam Adebayo's insane box score
In no particular order, here were the thoughts dancing in my head:
"Is this a good thing? How does it change how we view Kobe's 81?"
"43 free throws? Gross."
"If it happens against the Wizards, does it even count?"
"If you asked me to pick players most likely to match or surpass Kobe, how many would I name before getting to Bam Adebayo?"
It's this last one that I think is most interesting. Off the top of my head, I would probably land around 60-ish.
Then I started digging and before long realized its much lower.
To be fair, I forgot Adebayo even had a 40-point game. When looking up his previous career high, I had no recollection of his 41-point game against the KD-Kyrie-Harden Nets in 2021.
For a variety of reasons (the boon of offensive talent, rule changes, increased pace, heavier premium on 3s, etc.) it's perhaps never been easier to score than right now. And so naturally, I wondered how many active players have scored at least 42.
Now if I were to actually draft players I think are more likely than Bam to score 80, I wouldn't just limit it to players with superior career highs. The league is flush with young scorers who have never touched 40, players like Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Shaedon Sharpe and Dylan Harper, among many others, who on the right night with the perfect set of circumstances — injured teammates, weary opponent, low stakes — you could imagine having an out-of-body scorched Earth experience.
Another day, perhaps I'll sit down and actually think through who all I would pick before Adebayo. But for now, I instead offer up something a little more concrete.
Courtesy of Stathead, the 101 active players who have scored at least 42 points in an NBA game, one more than Adebayo's previous career high. By this rudimentary measure, yet one based in reality of what has actually happened on an NBA floor, Adebayo was the 102nd-most likely active player to pull off that historic scoring feat.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it, for now.
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