"I'm not feeling as confident about them": NASCAR insiders cast doubt over Team Penske's form as HMS and JGR dominate the field

For much of the modern NASCAR era, the Big 3: Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Team Penske have shared the mantle of leadership. Together, they've collected trophies, titles, playoff berths, and rewritten the history of the sport.

But as the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series enters the dog days of the regular season and rolls out of Dover, one of those names is beginning to slide from that position. HMS and JGR continue to operate with clinical dominance, sweeping the top six positions at Dover. By contrast, Team Penske appeared out of sync and sluggish.

Jeff Gluck pointed it out on NASCAR's Teardown podcast:

"Dover is really a showcase for these top teams. And again, with Hendrick and Gibbs really showing that they're a step above. I know that it's tempting always to want to put Penske in the conversation... It's sort of like those big two organizations at this point. I don't think Penske's (there)... I'm not feeling as confident about them at this point." (25:29 onwards)

On the other hand, the broader numbers are beginning to back up what insiders are suggesting, i.e., the Big Three might really just be a Big Two. In Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover, all four HMS drivers dominated in the top ten.

Chase Elliott's No. 9 Chevrolet led a race-high 238 laps and won Stage 1. His teammates, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman, stayed within the fight all afternoon, finishing fourth and third, respectively. Even William Byron, despite being taken out late, banked strong stage points before his exit.

Joe Gibbs Racing mirrored that excellence. Denny Hamlin won his fourth race of the season and second at Dover, ahead of teammate Chase Briscoe in overtime. Ty Gibbs finished fifth, and Christopher Bell ran upfront for most of the day and finished 18th, after a late crash.

In contrast, Team Penske's Sunday was muted. Ryan Blaney salvaged an eighth-place finish from a 31st-place start. Joey Logano's 600th career start in NASCAR was marred by a pit road penalty and recovery drive to 14th. Austin Cindric quietly brought home 16th, never a threat for stage points or track position.

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Does NASCAR's Big Three risk becoming Big Two?

(L-R) Rick Hendrick of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs of Joe Gibbs Racing, and Roger Penske of Team Penske before the 2024 NASCAR Championship race. Source: Getty

This isn't just about one race. Over the last several months, Team Penske has consistently found itself a step behind. Ryan Blaney remains their best hope at seventh in points with nine top-10s. However, his NASCAR Cup Series has been marred by misfortune with seven DNFs in 21 races so far.

Despite a strong win at Texas, Joey Logano's NASCAR season has been underwhelming by his standards. He has just two top-five finishes this year, and an average finish of 17.0. Cindric's April win at Talladega remains his only top-five finish of the year, and he’s now gone over three months without a top-10.

JGR and HMS, meanwhile, are peaking. Chase Elliott (702), William Byron (686), and Kyle Larson (664) currently sit 1-2-3 in the regular season standings. Hamlin (663) and Bell (635) round out the top six. The gap to Penske's lead car - Blaney at 576 is stark. Even Logano (11th) and Cindric (19th) are fighting for relevance.

Out of the 11 drivers fielded between these three teams, only Ty Gibbs and Alex Bowman have yet to win in 2025, and Bowman is a comfortable +63 on the playoff cutline. Co-host Jordan Bianchi echoed the sentiment, while adding:

"I agree with you about Penske. I haven't seen a lot from them, but I will say this... We know that Penske's road course program is not to the level it needs to be at and so we haven't really seen maybe their strengths right now, which I think are intermediate racetracks." (27:34 onwards)

Over the last six races, including Chicago, Mexico City, and Sonoma, Shane van Gisbergen has won three times, and none of the Penske trio have come close.

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"I'm certainly not counting out Penske at all": NASCAR Insiders recall the 2024 Championship

Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, and Denny Hamlin during the 2024 Daytona 500 Media Day. Source: Imagn

Still, Team Penske isn't without precedent when it comes to late-season surges. After all, just last season, Joey Logano stunned the field with a clinically timed championship run. Despite finishing the year with the worst average finish (17.1) for a NASCAR champion, he claimed the 2024 title with wins at Nashville, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, each perfectly placed to go through the playoff rounds.

The same blueprint could repeat this year. Tracks like Gateway, New Hampshire, Phoenix, and Martinsville are all suited to their setup. As Jordan Bianchi reminded:

"We've had this conversation the last few years, and things change. I think we've to be really careful... when you look at what's in the playoffs and you've got intermediates at a Las Vegas and Kansas and you've a Penske strong suit at a Martinsville and a Phoenix, that does tilt the scales a little bit... And then you throw Gateway and New Hampshire in there too. That that's another curveball." (30:48 onwards)

Logano's run last year came as criticism swirled around the playoff format. Under NASCAR's traditional points system, he'd have finished 12th overall. Yet, when it mattered, Penske's execution was flawless. Jeff Gluck also admitted:

"I'm certainly not counting out Penske at all. I think we've learned our lesson on that... They've won three straight championships, and the tracks that they're good on fit them perfectly, right?" (31:46 onwards)

So far, however, there's no sign of that same energy in 2025. Consistency has been hard to come by, and pace has been uneven. While Blaney remains a reliable top-10 contender, there's a sharp contrast in authority when compared to the Hendrick and Gibbs cars.

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Edited by Riddhiman Sarkar