‘I don’t think we are bouncing back’: Struggling Toronto housing market could remain fragile through 2025, realtors say

Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed an increase in listings, slightly higher month-over-month sales and lower average prices for June. Photo by Peter J. Thompson /Financial Post

Article content

By Shayan Alvi

Article content

Despite a slight month-over-month uptick in home sales in the Greater Toronto Area in June, many in the real estate industry expect that a lack of willing buyers will make for a fragile housing market for the remainder of 2025.

Article content

Article content

Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed an increase in listings, slightly higher month-over-month sales and lower average prices for June.

Article content

Article content

But some real estate agents say the environment they are seeing is one where sellers are losing leverage and buyers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty.

Article content

Article content

“ I don’t think we are bouncing back, the pendulum isn’t swinging back. We’re just kind of in a holding pattern,” said Scott Ingram, a Toronto sales representative with Century 21 Regal Realty Inc. “No matter how you look at price, whether you take average price or the home price index, those are softer than they were last year.”

Article content

A total of 6,243 homes were sold in June 2025 across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), marking a 2.4 per cent decrease from last year. New listings rose 7.7 per cent from last year to 19,839.

Article content

The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark fell 5.5 per cent year over year in June, while the average selling price of $1,101,691 was down 5.4 per cent compared with June 2024. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, both the MLS HPI and average price edged lower from May.

Article content

TRREB president Elechia Barry-Sproule said improved affordability from lower borrowing costs and the high levels of inventory were making home ownership “a more attainable goal for many households.”

Article content

Article content

But some realtors were reluctant to call it a rebound. Daniel Foch, chief real estate officer at Valery Real Estate Inc. in Toronto, said an increase in transactions is what signals a recovery, not necessarily just a drop in price.

Article content

Article content

“ What realtors see as a form of recovery would be more transactions.  More downside on price means more transactions because if prices come down, more buyers can afford to buy those homes,” Foch said.

Article content

However, the recovery has not started, he said, and predicted July and August will be “slow months” before the market has any chance of picking up in the fall.

Article content

Barry-Sproule said buyers have been taking advantage of the growing supply of listings to bargain down asking prices. At the same time, sellers are lowering their expectations, Foch said.

Article content

“ I think sellers are becoming more realistic. The ones who need to sell are getting more aggressive with pricing and beginning to adapt to the fact that the market is changing,” he said. “Historically sellers held the cards because they had the scarce asset; that’s becoming less and less true. So I think that we are starting to see sellers price more aggressively and I think we’ll continue to see them price more aggressively.”